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Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19

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  • Andrew Atkeson
  • Karen A. Kopecky
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

We document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission. First: across all countries and U.S. states that we study, the growth rates of daily deaths from COVID-19 fell from a wide range of initially high levels to levels close to zero within 20-30 days after each region experienced 25 cumulative deaths. Second: after this initial period, growth rates of daily deaths have hovered around zero or below everywhere in the world. Third: the cross section standard deviation of growth rates of daily deaths across locations fell very rapidly in the first 10 days of the epidemic and has remained at a relatively low level since then. Fourth: when interpreted through a range of epidemiological models, these first three facts about the growth rate of COVID deaths imply that both the effective reproduction numbers and transmission rates of COVID-19 fell from widely dispersed initial levels and the effective reproduction number has hovered around one after the first 30 days of the epidemic virtually everywhere in the world. We argue that failing to account for these four stylized facts may result in overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic.

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  • Andrew Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2020. "Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19," Staff Report 611, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:88626
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.611
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    Cited by:

    1. Annika Camehl & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1954, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    3. Matthew Spiegel & Heather Tookes, 2021. "Business Restrictions and COVID-19 Fatalities [The immediate effect of COVID-19 policies on social distancing behavior in the United States]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5266-5308.
    4. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Stephen C. Miller, 2020. "COVID-19 Case Growth vs. Outcomes: Comparing Regions in the United States," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 35(Winter 20), pages 29-41.
    6. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," CESifo Working Paper Series 8977, CESifo.
    7. David J. Hebert & Michael D. Curry, 2022. "Optimal lockdowns," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 263-274, December.
    8. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2023. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 474-508, June.
    9. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daniel H. Cooper & Vaishali Garga & María Jose Luengo-Prado & Jenny Tang, 2020. "The Roles of Mobility and Masks in the Spread of COVID-19," Current Policy Perspectives 89224, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Charles I. Jones, 2020. "Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 111-166.
    12. Pablo de Pedraza & María Rosalía Vicente, 2021. "Are Spaniards Happier When the Bars Are Open? Using Life Satisfaction to Evaluate COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Martin Eichenbaum & Miguel Godinho de Matos & Francisco Lima & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2024. "Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2571-2611.
    14. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 21-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Lin Ma & Gil Shapira & Damien de Walque & Quy‐Toan Do & Jed Friedman & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2022. "The Intergenerational Mortality Trade‐Off Of Covid‐19 Lockdown Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1427-1468, August.
    16. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    17. Camera, Gabriele & Gioffré, Alessandro, 2021. "The economic impact of lockdowns: A theoretical assessment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    18. Angelo Cozzubo & Javier Herrera & François Roubaud & Mireille Razafindrakoto, 2021. "El impacto de políticas diferenciadas de cuarentena sobre la mortalidad por COVID-19: el caso de Brasil y Perú," Working Papers DT/2021/05, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    19. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Hayaki, Shoka & Ogisu, Yoshitaka, 2022. "COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2021. "COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 407, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    21. Hevia, Constantino & Macera, Manuel & Neumeyer, Pablo Andrés, 2022. "Covid-19 in unequal societies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    22. Eric Budish, 2020. "Maximize Utility subject to R≤1: A Simple Price-Theory Approach to Covid-19 Lockdown and Reopening Policy," NBER Working Papers 28093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio Ramírez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Obst, Thomas & Schläger, Dan, 2021. "Cost-benefit considerations of lockdowns: What are we missing?," IW-Kurzberichte 33/2021e, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    25. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Epidemic; non-pharmaceutical interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General

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