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COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility

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  • Shibamoto, Masahiko
  • Hayaki, Shoka
  • Ogisu, Yoshitaka

Abstract

Given that real-world infection-spread scenarios pose many uncertainties, and predictions and simulations may differ from reality, this study explores factors essential for more realistically describing an infection situation. It furnishes three approaches to the argument that human mobility can create an acceleration of the spread of COVID-19 infection and its cyclicality under the simultaneous relationship. First, the study presents a dynamic model comprising the infection–mobility trade-off and mobility demand, where an increase in human mobility can cause infection explosion and where, conversely, an increase in new infections can be made temporary by suppressing mobility. Second, using time-series data for Japan, it presents empirical evidence for a stochastic trend and cycle in new infection cases. Third, it employs macroeconometrics to ascertain the feasibility of our model’s predictions. Accordingly, from March 2020 to May 2021, the sources of COVID-19 infection spread in Japan varied significantly over time, and each change in the trend and cycle of new infection cases explained approximately half the respective variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shibamoto, Masahiko & Hayaki, Shoka & Ogisu, Yoshitaka, 2022. "COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:64:y:2022:i:c:s0889158322000053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2022.101195
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    Cited by:

    1. Higo, Masahiro & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2023. "Consumer price measurement under the first wave of the COVID-19 spread in Japan: Scanner data evidence for retailers in Tokyo," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Kikuchi, Junichi & Nagao, Ryoya & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki, 2023. "Expenditure responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Masahiro Higo & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2022. "Was Inflation Observed under the First Wave of the COVID-19 Spread in Japan? Scanner Data Evidence for Retailers in Tokyo," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-013, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; New infection cases; Infection–mobility trade-off; Mobility demand; Stochastic trend and cycle; macroeconometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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