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Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe

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  • Chudik, A.
  • Pesaran, M. H.
  • Rebucci, A.

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 effective reproduction numbers and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document may have resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. The importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach, also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, R0. It is precisely estimated and differ little across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chudik, A. & Pesaran, M. H. & Rebucci, A., 2022. "Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2230, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2230
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    1. Almås, Ingvild & Bold, Tessa & von Carnap, Tillmann & Ghisolfi, Selene & Sandefur, Justin, 2023. "The macroeconomics of pandemics around the world: Lives versus livelihoods revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; multiplication factor; under-reporting; social distancing; self-isolation; SIR model; reproduction number; pandemics; vaccine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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