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The economic impact of lockdowns: A theoretical assessment

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  • Camera, Gabriele
  • Gioffré, Alessandro

Abstract

The sudden appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered extreme and open-ended “lockdowns” to manage the disease. Should these drastic interventions be the blueprint for future epidemics? We construct an analytical framework, based on the theory of random matching, which makes explicit how epidemics spread through economic activity. Imposing lockdowns by assumption not only prevents contagion and reduces healthcare costs, but also disrupts income-generation processes. We characterize how lockdowns impact the contagion process and social welfare. Numerical analysis suggests that protracted, open-ended lockdowns are generally suboptimal, bringing into question the policy responses seen in many countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Camera, Gabriele & Gioffré, Alessandro, 2021. "The economic impact of lockdowns: A theoretical assessment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:97:y:2021:i:c:s0304406821001154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102552
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    2. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marjit, Sugata & Das, Gouranga, 2022. "Contact Intensity, Unemployment and Finite Change - The Case of Entertainment Sector under Pandemic: A General Equilibrium Approach," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1200, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Camera, Gabriele & Gioffré, Alessandro, 2024. "Financial contagion and financial lockdowns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 613-631.
    3. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & Shankha Chakraborty & Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2024. "A Brief Tour of Economic Epidemiology Modelling," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024002, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    5. Hubert Kempf & stéphane Rossignol, 2023. "Lockdown policies and the dynamics of a pandemic: foresight, rebounds and optimality," Documents de recherche 23-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.

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