IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/cirwor/96s-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Determinants of University Dropouts : A Sequential Decision Model with Selectivity Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Rachel Houle
  • Sophie Mahseredjian
  • Claude Montmarquette

Abstract

In this paper, we study the determinants of university dropouts with a longitudinal data set on students' enrollments at the University of Montreal. With a bivariate probit model with selectivity bias, the variables explaining persistence and dropouts are related to the information gathered on the student about his or her interests and abilities. The average number of students in first-year compulsory courses is also a determining factor. These results support a simple version of Manski's model of schooling as an experimentation process and the models of sequential decisions of Altonji, Oosterbeek and Hartog et al. Also supported is the idea of person-environment fit, pioneered by Tinto. Cette étude examine les déterminants des abandons scolaires à l'aide de données longitudinales de l'Université de Montréal. Un modèle probit bivarié avec biais de sélection montre que les variables expliquant la persévérance et l'abandon sont reliées à l'information acquise par l'étudiant concernant ses intérêts et ses habiletés. Le nombre moyen d'étudiants dans les cours obligatoires en première année est également un facteur déterminant. Les résultats obtenus supportent une version simple du modèle d'expérimentation scolaire de Manski et des modèles de décisions séquentielles d'Altonji, d'Oosterbeek et d'Hartog et al., sans pour autant rejeter l'approche de l'adéquation entre l'environnement et la personne proposée par Tinto.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Houle & Sophie Mahseredjian & Claude Montmarquette, 1996. "The Determinants of University Dropouts : A Sequential Decision Model with Selectivity Bias," CIRANO Working Papers 96s-04, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:96s-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/96s-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Venti, Steven F. & Wise, David A., 1982. "Test scores, educational opportunities, and individual choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 35-63, June.
    2. James, Estelle, 1988. "Student aid and college attendance: Where are we now and where do we go from here?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Hartog, Joop & Pfann, Gerard & Ridder, Geert, 1989. "(Non-)graduation and the earnings function : An inquiry on self-selection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1373-1395, September.
    4. Grubb, W. Norton, 1989. "Dropouts, spells of time, and credits in postsecondary education: Evidence from longitudinal surveys," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 49-67, February.
    5. repec:adr:anecst:y:1988:i:10:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Altonji, Joseph G, 1993. "The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 48-83, January.
    7. Denyse L. Dagenais & Marcel G. Dagenais, 1988. "Modéle d'analyse du cheminement des étudiants dans un programme universitaire de premier cycle," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 10, pages 75-96.
    8. Manski, Charles F., 1989. "Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the postsecondary dropout phenomenon," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 305-312, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Di Pietro, 2004. "The determinants of university dropout in Italy: a bivariate probability model with sample selection," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 187-191.
    2. MacDonald, John M., 2001. "Analytic methods for examining race and ethnic disparity in the juvenile courts," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 507-519.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montmarquette, Claude & Mahseredjian, Sophie & Houle, Rachel, 2001. "The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 475-484, October.
    2. Ranasinghe, Athula & Hartog, Joop, 2002. "Free-education in Sri Lanka. Does it eliminate the family effect?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 623-633, December.
    3. Jason M. Lindo & Nicholas J. Sanders & Philip Oreopoulos, 2010. "Ability, Gender, and Performance Standards: Evidence from Academic Probation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-117, April.
    4. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
    5. Garcia, Rene & Bonomo, Marco, 2001. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-90, February.
    6. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2008. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision: A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2163-2184, December.
    7. Basit Zafar, 2011. "How Do College Students Form Expectations?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(2), pages 301-348.
    8. Dennis A. Ahlburg & Brian P. Mccall & In-gang Na, "undated". "Time to Dropout From College: A Hazard Model with Endogenous Waiting," Working Papers 0102, Human Resources and Labor Studies, University of Minnesota (Twin Cities Campus).
    9. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2018. "The Economics of University Dropouts and Delayed Graduation: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 11421, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Vignoles Anna F & Powdthavee Nattavudh, 2009. "The Socioeconomic Gap in University Dropouts," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, April.
    11. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2019. "Delayed Graduation and University Dropout: A Review of Theoretical Approaches," IZA Discussion Papers 12601, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Johannes S. Kunz & Kevin E. Staub, 2016. "Subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," ECON - Working Papers 218, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    13. Timothy N. Bond & George Bulman & Xiaoxiao Li & Jonathan Smith, 2018. "Updating Human Capital Decisions: Evidence from SAT Score Shocks and College Applications," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages 807-839.
    14. Backes-Gellner, Uschi & Herz, Holger & Kosfeld, Michael & Oswald, Yvonne, 2021. "Do preferences and biases predict life outcomes? Evidence from education and labor market entry decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2018. "The Return To College: Selection And Dropout Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1077-1102, August.
    16. Bond, Timothy N. & Bulman, George & Li, Xiaoxiao & Smith, Jonathan, 2016. "Updated Expectations and College Application Portfolios," MPRA Paper 69317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2023. "大学中退の逐次意思決定モデルの構造推定 [Structural estimation of a sequential decision model of college dropout]," MPRA Paper 118183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Stratton Leslie S. & Wetzel James N., 2013. "Are Students Dropping Out or Simply Dragging Out the College Experience? Persistence at the Six-Year Mark," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1121-1142, October.
    20. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:96s-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.