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The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"

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  • Fabio Milani

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

  • John Treadwell

    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

There is substantial agreement in the monetary policy literature over the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks. The shocks that are investigated, however, almost exclusively represent unanticipated changes in policy, which surprise the private sector and which are typically found to have a delayed and sluggish effect on output. In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian model that incorporates news about future policies to try to disentangle the anticipated and unanticipated components of policy shocks. The paper shows that the conventional estimates confound two distinct effects on output: an effect due to unanticipated or ìsurpriseî shocks, which is smaller and more short-lived than the response usually obtained in the literature, and a large, delayed, and persistent effect due to anticipated policy shocks or "news." News shocks play a larger role in influencing the business cycle than unanticipated policy shocks, although the overall fraction of economic fluctuations that can be attributed to monetary policy remains limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2011. "The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"," Working Papers 101109, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:101109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
    3. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    5. Sandra Gomes, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    7. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
    8. Agustín Arias & Benjamín García & Ignacio Rojas, 2023. "Forward Guidance: Estimating a Behavioral DSGE Model with System Priors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 994, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    10. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    11. Famoroti Jonathan Olusegun & Adeleke Omolade, 2022. "Impact of monetary policy transmission mechanism in West African countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 20-42, March.
    12. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    13. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    14. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    15. Milani, Fabio & Rajbhandari, Ashish, 2020. "Observed expectations, news shocks, and the business cycle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 95-118.
    16. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    17. Lafuente Juan Ángel & Monfort Mercedes & Pérez Rafaela & Ruiz Jesús, 2021. "Disentangling Permanent and Transitory Monetary Shocks with a Nonlinear Taylor Rule," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 150-162, January.
    18. Nizam Ahmed Mehedi, 2021. "On The Contribution of Interest Expense (Income) on Total Output," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 31-56, January.
    19. Badarinza, Cristian & Margaritov, Emil, 2011. "News and policy foresight in a macro-finance model of the US," Working Paper Series 1313, European Central Bank.
    20. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    21. Ebenezer G Olamide & Andrew Maredza, 2021. "The Short and Long Run Dynamics of Monetary Policy, Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in the CEMAC Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 78-89, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks; News shocks; New Keynesian model with news shocks; Effects of monetary policy onoutput;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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