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Heterogeneous beliefs and housing-market boom-bust cycles

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  • Tomura, Hajime

Abstract

This paper presents a business cycle model capturing the stylized features of housing-market boom-bust cycles in developed countries. The model implies that over-optimism of mortgage borrowers generates housing-market boom-bust cycles, if mortgage borrowers are credit-constrained and savers do not share their optimism. This result holds without price stickiness. If price stickiness is introduced into the model, then the model replicates a low policy interest rate during a housing boom as an endogenous reaction to a low inflation rate, given a Taylor rule. Thus, monetary easing observed during housing booms are consistent with the presence of over-optimism causing boom-bust cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomura, Hajime, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs and housing-market boom-bust cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 735-755.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:4:p:735-755
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.11.002
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    2. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2014. "The Housing Sector over Business Cycles: Empirical Analysis and DSGE Modelling," Working Papers 2014/12, Czech National Bank.
    3. Ng, Eric C.Y. & Feng, Ning, 2016. "Housing market dynamics in a small open economy: Do external and news shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 64-88.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset price bubbles; Monetary policy; Financial liberalization; House prices; Credit constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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