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Deep Learning Volatility

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  • Blanka Horvath
  • Aitor Muguruza
  • Mehdi Tomas

Abstract

We present a neural network based calibration method that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface. The framework is consistently applicable throughout a range of volatility models -including the rough volatility family- and a range of derivative contracts. The aim of neural networks in this work is an off-line approximation of complex pricing functions, which are difficult to represent or time-consuming to evaluate by other means. We highlight how this perspective opens new horizons for quantitative modelling: The calibration bottleneck posed by a slow pricing of derivative contracts is lifted. This brings several numerical pricers and model families (such as rough volatility models) within the scope of applicability in industry practice. The form in which information from available data is extracted and stored influences network performance: This approach is inspired by representing the implied volatility and option prices as a collection of pixels. In a number of applications we demonstrate the prowess of this modelling approach regarding accuracy, speed, robustness and generality and also its potentials towards model recognition.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanka Horvath & Aitor Muguruza & Mehdi Tomas, 2019. "Deep Learning Volatility," Papers 1901.09647, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1901.09647
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Archil Gulisashvili & Blanka Horvath & Antoine Jacquier, 2018. "Mass at zero in the uncorrelated SABR model and implied volatility asymptotics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1753-1765, October.
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    12. Blanka Horvath & Antoine Jacquier & Aitor Muguruza & Andreas Sojmark, 2017. "Functional central limit theorems for rough volatility," Papers 1711.03078, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    13. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2015. "Hybrid scheme for Brownian semistationary processes," Papers 1507.03004, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
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    15. Antoine Jacquier & Claude Martini & Aitor Muguruza, 2018. "On VIX futures in the rough Bergomi model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 45-61, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Jacquier & Emma R. Malone & Mugad Oumgari, 2019. "Stacked Monte Carlo for option pricing," Papers 1903.10795, arXiv.org.
    2. Christian Bayer & Blanka Horvath & Aitor Muguruza & Benjamin Stemper & Mehdi Tomas, 2019. "On deep calibration of (rough) stochastic volatility models," Papers 1908.08806, arXiv.org.
    3. Marc Sabate-Vidales & David v{S}iv{s}ka & Lukasz Szpruch, 2020. "Solving path dependent PDEs with LSTM networks and path signatures," Papers 2011.10630, arXiv.org.
    4. Giorgia Callegaro & Martino Grasselli & Gilles Paèes, 2021. "Fast Hybrid Schemes for Fractional Riccati Equations (Rough Is Not So Tough)," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(1), pages 221-254, February.
    5. Mehdi Tomas & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2019. "From microscopic price dynamics to multidimensional rough volatility models," Papers 1910.13338, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    6. Patryk Gierjatowicz & Marc Sabate-Vidales & David v{S}iv{s}ka & Lukasz Szpruch & v{Z}an v{Z}uriv{c}, 2020. "Robust pricing and hedging via neural SDEs," Papers 2007.04154, arXiv.org.
    7. Damiano Brigo & Xiaoshan Huang & Andrea Pallavicini & Haitz Saez de Ocariz Borde, 2021. "Interpretability in deep learning for finance: a case study for the Heston model," Papers 2104.09476, arXiv.org.
    8. Jim Gatheral & Paul Jusselin & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2020. "The quadratic rough Heston model and the joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration problem," Papers 2001.01789, arXiv.org.
    9. Hans Buhler & Blanka Horvath & Terry Lyons & Imanol Perez Arribas & Ben Wood, 2020. "A Data-driven Market Simulator for Small Data Environments," Papers 2006.14498, arXiv.org.
    10. Blanka Horvath & Zacharia Issa & Aitor Muguruza, 2021. "Clustering Market Regimes using the Wasserstein Distance," Papers 2110.11848, arXiv.org.
    11. Henrique Guerreiro & Jo~ao Guerra, 2021. "Least squares Monte Carlo methods in stochastic Volterra rough volatility models," Papers 2105.04511, arXiv.org.
    12. Jan Matas & Jan Posp'iv{s}il, 2021. "Robustness and sensitivity analyses for rough Volterra stochastic volatility models," Papers 2107.12462, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    13. Johannes Ruf & Weiguan Wang, 2019. "Neural networks for option pricing and hedging: a literature review," Papers 1911.05620, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    14. Christa Cuchiero & Eva Flonner & Kevin Kurt, 2024. "Robust financial calibration: a Bayesian approach for neural SDEs," Papers 2409.06551, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    15. Brian Huge & Antoine Savine, 2020. "Differential Machine Learning," Papers 2005.02347, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    16. Shuaiqiang Liu & Anastasia Borovykh & Lech A. Grzelak & Cornelis W. Oosterlee, 2019. "A neural network-based framework for financial model calibration," Papers 1904.10523, arXiv.org.
    17. Yannick Limmer & Blanka Horvath, 2023. "Robust Hedging GANs," Papers 2307.02310, arXiv.org.
    18. Dirk Roeder & Georgi Dimitroff, 2020. "Volatility model calibration with neural networks a comparison between direct and indirect methods," Papers 2007.03494, arXiv.org.
    19. Brian Ning & Sebastian Jaimungal & Xiaorong Zhang & Maxime Bergeron, 2021. "Arbitrage-Free Implied Volatility Surface Generation with Variational Autoencoders," Papers 2108.04941, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    20. Fred Espen Benth & Nils Detering & Silvia Lavagnini, 2020. "Accuracy of Deep Learning in Calibrating HJM Forward Curves," Papers 2006.01911, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    21. Matteo Gambara & Josef Teichmann, 2020. "Consistent Recalibration Models and Deep Calibration," Papers 2006.09455, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    22. Thibault Jaisson, 2021. "Deep differentiable reinforcement learning and optimal trading," Papers 2112.02944, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    23. Henrique Guerreiro & João Guerra, 2021. "Least squares Monte Carlo methods in stochastic Volterra rough volatility models," Working Papers REM 2021/0176, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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