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COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Gerval, Adam
  • Hansen, James

Abstract

This working paper illuminates the impact that volatility in international commodity prices has on U.S. agricultural product export volumes to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has created such a period of intense price volatility, offering a unique opportunity for modeling potential effects of a global shock on trade with these nations. By simulating the effects of declining oil prices in 2020 and subsequent years through a shock to gross domestic product (GDP) in oil-dependent nations—i.e., Angola and Nigeria—we can evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural trade for key U.S. export commodities to SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," Administrative Publications 327336, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersap:327336
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.327336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Olayungbo, D.O., 2019. "Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Hjort, Kim & Boussios, David & Seeley, Ralph & Hansen, James, 2018. "The ERS Country-Commodity Linked System: Documenting Its International Country and Regional Agricultural Baseline Models," Technical Bulletins 282511, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Trostle, Ronald & Seeley, Ralph, 2013. "Developing Countries Dominate World Demand for Agricultural Products," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 07, pages 1-1, September.
    6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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