IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/cnb/ocpubc/fsr1011-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Gersl
  • Jakub Seidler

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This article examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer†, a macroprudential tool proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1011/2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/financial-stability/.galleries/fs_reports/fsr_2010-2011/fsr_2010-2011_article_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/en/financial-stability/thematic-articles-on-financial-stability/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. Katharina Steiner, 2011. "Households’ Exposure to Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE EU Member States and Croatia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 6-24.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    4. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    6. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    7. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Klaus Liebscher & Josef Christl & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    12. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
    13. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    14. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    15. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
    16. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Miss Gudrun Johnsen & Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2005/151, International Monetary Fund.
    17. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    2. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    3. Martin Cesnak, 2023. "Decomposition of retail loan growth," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Angela Roman & Alina Camelia Åžargu, 2011. "Eu New Member States Households' Banking Indebtedness And It'S Implications: An Overview," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-28.
    5. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Zlatuse Komarkova & Vaclav Hausenblas & Jan Frait, 2012. "How To Identify Systemically Important Financial Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 100-111, Czech National Bank.
    7. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    8. José Alves & Rita Pereira, 2017. "The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    10. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy," Research and Policy Notes 2012/03, Czech National Bank.
    11. Torsten Wezel, 2019. "Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer," IMF Working Papers 2019/086, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Malovaná, Simona & Frait, Jan, 2017. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Rivals or teammates?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
    13. Simona Malovana, 2018. "The Pro-Cyclicality of Risk Weights for Credit Exposures in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2018/12, Czech National Bank.
    14. José Ricardo Borges Alves & Rita Maria Henriques Pereira, 2020. "The indebtedness of households up until the economic adjustment programme for Portugal: an empirical assessment," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 529-550.
    15. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.
    16. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    17. Felipe Clavijo Ramírez & Jorge Luis Hurtado Guarín & Oscar Fernando Jaulín Méndez & Javier Pirateque Niño, 2016. "El requerimiento de capital contracíclico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 963, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    19. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.
    20. Attila Csajbok & Pervin Dadashova & Pavlo Shykin & Balazs Vonnak, 2020. "Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 249, pages 4-12.
    21. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    22. R. Brian Langrin & Lavern McFarlane, 2014. "Policy Implications for the Application of Countercyclical Capital Buffers When the Government Borrowing Crowds Out Private Sector Credit: The Case of Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 285-312, July-Dece.
    23. Gjergj Legisi, 2020. "Credit-to-GDP gap: Local versus foreign currency credit," IHEID Working Papers 13-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    3. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    4. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    5. Eleana Lici & Irena Boboli, 2015. "Concentration and Competition in the Albanian Banking Sector," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejes_v1_i.
    6. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.
    7. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    8. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    9. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    10. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "A re-assessment of credit development in European transition economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 128, pages 33-51.
    11. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Post-Print halshs-00384566, HAL.
    13. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    14. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    15. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    16. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    17. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Zsófia Arvai & Karl Driessen & Ínci Ötker-Robe, 2009. "Regional Financial Interlinkages and Financial Contagion within Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 522-540, December.
    19. Saibal Ghosh, 2010. "Credit Growth, Bank Soundness and Financial Fragility," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 11(1), pages 69-98, March.
    20. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1011/2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Babecky (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cnbgvcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.