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Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011

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  • Adam Gersl
  • Jakub Seidler

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This article examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer†, a macroprudential tool proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1011/2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    2. Martin Cesnak, 2023. "Decomposition of retail loan growth," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    4. José Alves & Rita Pereira, 2017. "The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2012. "Macroprudential Policy and Its Instruments in a Small EU Economy," Research and Policy Notes 2012/03, Czech National Bank.
    6. Malovaná, Simona & Frait, Jan, 2017. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Rivals or teammates?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
    7. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    8. Simona Malovana, 2018. "The Pro-Cyclicality of Risk Weights for Credit Exposures in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2018/12, Czech National Bank.
    9. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.
    10. Serwa, Dobromił, 2013. "Identifying multiple regimes in the model of credit to households," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 198-208.
    11. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Zlatuse Komarkova & Vaclav Hausenblas & Jan Frait, 2012. "How To Identify Systemically Important Financial Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 100-111, Czech National Bank.
    14. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    15. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromił, 2014. "Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 572-587.
    16. Attila Csajbok & Pervin Dadashova & Pavlo Shykin & Balazs Vonnak, 2020. "Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 249, pages 4-12.
    17. Angela Roman & Alina Camelia Åžargu, 2011. "Eu New Member States Households' Banking Indebtedness And It'S Implications: An Overview," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 1-28.
    18. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.
    19. Torsten Wezel, 2019. "Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer," IMF Working Papers 2019/086, International Monetary Fund.
    20. José Ricardo Borges Alves & Rita Maria Henriques Pereira, 2020. "The indebtedness of households up until the economic adjustment programme for Portugal: an empirical assessment," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 529-550.
    21. Felipe Clavijo Ramírez & Jorge Luis Hurtado Guarín & Oscar Fernando Jaulín Méndez & Javier Pirateque Niño, 2016. "El requerimiento de capital contracíclico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 963, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. R. Brian Langrin & Lavern McFarlane, 2014. "Policy Implications for the Application of Countercyclical Capital Buffers When the Government Borrowing Crowds Out Private Sector Credit: The Case of Jamaica," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 285-312, July-Dece.
    23. Gjergj Legisi, 2020. "Credit-to-GDP gap: Local versus foreign currency credit," IHEID Working Papers 13-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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