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Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system

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  • Jakubik, Petr
  • Moinescu, Bogdan

Abstract

The paper sets forth a novel way to estimate the optimal level of credit growth for an emerging banking system. Contrary to the traditional credit-to-GDP gap indicator, credit growth is considered to be optimal when it does not accelerate credit risk measured by loan loss provisions. We provide empirical support for modelling the provision charge ratio dynamic by the quadratic function of the credit growth deviation from its optimal level. The operational framework consists of a simplified financial satellite with two equations representing credit growth and change in the provision charge ratio. Our empirical results show that a 3 percent (±1pp margin) quarterly increase in credit to the private sector is, in nominal terms, optimal for financial stability and sustainable growth in Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakubik, Petr & Moinescu, Bogdan, 2015. "Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 577-591.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:4:p:577-591
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.01.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dorsaf Elbir Merhbene, 2021. "The relationship between non-performing loans, banking system stability and economic activity: The case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Almir ALIHODŽIĆ & İbrahim Halil EKŞİ, 2018. "Credit growth and non-performing loans: evidence from Turkey and some Balkan countries," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9, pages 229-249, December.
    4. CIMPOERU Smaranda, 2016. "European Economies Facing The Global Financial Crisis: Are Emerging Economies More Vulnerable Than Advanced Ones?," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 69-85, September.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    9. Shakeel Ahmed & M. Ejaz Majeed & Eleftherios Thalassinos & Yannis Thalassinos, 2021. "The Impact of Bank Specific and Macro-Economic Factors on Non-Performing Loans in the Banking Sector: Evidence from an Emerging Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, May.
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb15/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Morakinyo Akinola & Muller Colette & Sibanda Mabutho, 2018. "Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 67-86, August.
    12. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/2 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Operational research in banking; Optimal credit growth; Risk analysis; Financial stability; Quadratic variable systems dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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