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Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level

Author

Listed:
  • Attila Csajbok

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Pervin Dadashova

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy)

  • Pavlo Shykin

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

  • Balazs Vonnak

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

In line with Kiss et. al (2006), we have constructed an analytical framework for the timely detection of risks connected with the rapid growth of consumer lending, based on an econometric model for the equilibrium level of household and consumer loans. Results from an estimation on a panel of countries were extrapolated to the Ukrainian banking sector. The model suggests that after two waves of strong deleveraging starting in 2009 and in 2014, the consumer credit stock in 2019 is still well below its equilibrium level in Ukraine, despite the recent strong nominal dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Csajbok & Pervin Dadashova & Pavlo Shykin & Balazs Vonnak, 2020. "Consumer Lending in Ukraine: Estimation of the Equilibrium Level," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 249, pages 4-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2020:i:249:p:4-12
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2020.249.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer lending; equilibrium model; error-correction model; mean group estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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