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Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth

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  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka

    (Université de Lyon - GATE CNRS, ENS LSH)

Abstract

In this work, we try to analyze the recent credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and estimate the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations. Our estimation findings corroborate previous fears about the rapid credit growth in the CEECs. Indeed, in many cases the credit expansion exceeds the level justified by their fundamentals or financial development. Under normal conditions, this rapid growth and even "overshooting" of banking credit could be considered as an adjustment to its long-term equilibrium level. However, in the actual crisis situation, this excessive credit growth can reinforce other existing disequilibria and lead to an increase in the financial vulnerability of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Working Papers 0912, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0912
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
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    Cited by:

    1. Srdjan Marinkovic & Marko Malovic, 2012. "Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil," Book Chapters, in: João Sousa Andrade & Marta C. N. Simões & Ivan Stosic & Dejan Eric & Hasan Hanic (ed.), Managing Structural Changes - Trends and Requirements, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 278-302, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    2. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
    4. Dr. Rezarta Shkurti (Perri) & Dr. Brunilda Duraj, 2010. "The Assessment Of The Financial Soundness Of The Banking Sectors In Balkan Countries Using "Early Warning Indicators" - A Comparative Study With Policy Implications," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 33-48, June.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Credit Growth; Dynamic Panel; CEECs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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