IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/42541.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Excessive credit growth and countercyclical capital buffers in basel III: an empirical evidence from central and east european countries

Author

Listed:
  • Seidler, Jakub
  • Gersl, Adam

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel II by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Seidler, Jakub & Gersl, Adam, 2012. "Excessive credit growth and countercyclical capital buffers in basel III: an empirical evidence from central and east european countries," MPRA Paper 42541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42541
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42541/1/MPRA_paper_42541.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43689/1/MPRA_paper_43689.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2001. "Credit growth, problem loans and credit risk provisioning in Spain," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 331-353, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
    4. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    6. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    7. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    8. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters, in: Klaus Liebscher & Josef Christl & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
    11. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Mr. Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2001/082, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    15. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    16. Katharina Steiner, 2011. "Households’ Exposure to Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE EU Member States and Croatia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 6-24.
    17. Tunstall, Rebecca & Lupton, Ruth & Power, Anne & Richardson, Liz, 2011. "Building the Big Society," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43807, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Ruth Lupton & Anne Power & Liz Richardson & Rebecca Tunstall, 2011. "Building the Big Society," CASE Reports casereport67, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Marchettini & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 2015/190, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2022. "The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 911-942, January.
    4. Rami Obeid & Bassam Awad, 2018. "Interaction of Monetary and Macro-prudential Policies: The Case of Jordan- Credit Gap as an Example," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 99-111.
    5. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Case of Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 251-285, July-Dece.
    6. Hasanov, Rashad & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2019. "Do political factors influence banking crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 305-318.
    7. Glocker, Christian & Url, Thomas, 2022. "Financial sector rescue programs: Domestic and cross border effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. G. Farrell, 2016. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Real-Time Credit-To-GDP Gap Estimates: A South African Perspective," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    13. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Namibia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/277, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jakub Dolezal, 2023. "Business and financial cycles of major global economies," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2023, pages 14-20, Czech National Bank.
    16. Saurabh Ghosh, 2015. "Building on the Countercyclical Consensus: An Empirical Test," Working Papers wp08, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    17. Valentina Flamini & Pierluigi Bologna & Fabio Di Vittorio & Rasool Zandvakil, 2019. "Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2019/039, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Irina – Raluca Badea, 2015. "The Role Of Countercyclical Measures In Controlling The Procyclical Behaviour Of Banks," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(43), pages 210-218.
    19. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Costa, Ágata, 2023. "Credit behavior and financial stability in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    3. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    4. Robert Kelly & Kieran Mcquinn & Rebecca Stuart, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship Between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy–The Case Of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(4), pages 455-477.
    5. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    6. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    7. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    8. Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Post-Print halshs-00384566, HAL.
    9. Eleana Lici & Irena Boboli, 2015. "Concentration and Competition in the Albanian Banking Sector," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejes_v1_i.
    10. Frait, Jan & Gersl, Adam & Seidler, Jakub, 2011. "Credit growth and financial stability in the Czech Republic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5771, The World Bank.
    11. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "A re-assessment of credit development in European transition economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 128, pages 33-51.
    12. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Ladislava Grochova & Tomas Otahal, 2012. "Corruption, Rule of Law, and Economic Efficiency: Virginia vs. Chicago Public Choice Theories," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 136-154.
    15. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.
    16. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    17. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    18. Avezum, Lucas & Oliveira, Vítor & Serra, Diogo, 2024. "Assessment of the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures implemented in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1542-1555.
    19. Irena Jindrichovska, 2012. "Generating Social Innovations: Some Recent Experience from Abroad," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 155-168.
    20. Branimir Jovanovic & Egzona Hani & Ljupka Georgievska, 2017. "Post-crisis credit slowdown in South-East Europe: return to normality?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 733-780, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; financial crisis; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.