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The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators

Author

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  • Christian Castro

    (Banco de España)

  • Ángel Estrada

    (Banco de España)

  • Jorge Martínez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyses a group of quantitative indicators to guide the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) in Spain. Using data covering three stress events in the Spanish banking system since the early 1960s, we describe a number of conceptual and practical issues that may arise with the Basel benchmark buffer guide (i.e. the credit-to-GDP gap) and study alternative specifications plus a number of complementary indicators. In this connection, we explore ways to deal with structural changes that may lead to some shortcomings in the indicators. Overall, we find that indicators of credit ‘intensity’ (where we propose the ratio of changes in credit to GDP), private sector debt sustainability, real estate prices and external imbalances can usefully complement the credit-to-GDP gap when taking CCB decisions in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    2. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    3. Lang, Jan Hannes & Welz, Peter, 2018. "Semi-structural credit gap estimation," Working Paper Series 2194, European Central Bank.
    4. Jorge E. Galán, 2020. "The benefits are at the tail: uncovering the impact of macroprudential policy on growth-at-risk," Working Papers 2007, Banco de España.
    5. Carmen Broto & Esther Cáceres & Mariya Melnychuk, 2022. "Sectoral indicators for applying the Banco de España’s new macroprudential tools," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Spring.
    6. Terhi Jokipii & Reto Nyffeler & Stéphane Riederer, 2021. "Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Karlo Kauko & Eero Tölö, 2019. "Banking Crisis Prediction with Differenced Relative Credit," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 65(4), pages 277-297.
    8. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank.
    9. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56, december.
    11. Jorge E. Galán, 2019. "Measuring credit-to-gdp gaps. The hodrick-prescott filter revisited," Occasional Papers 1906, Banco de España.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Carmen Broto & Esther Cáceres & Mariya Melnychuk, 2022. "Sectoral indicators for applying the Banco de España’s new macroprudential tools," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Spring.
    14. Carro, Adrian, 2023. "Taming the housing roller coaster: The impact of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    16. Torsten Wezel, 2019. "Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer," IMF Working Papers 2019/086, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Martínez, Juan Francisco & Oda, Daniel, 2021. "Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    18. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Introducing a composite indicator of cyclical systemic risk in Croatia: possibilities and limitations," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 1-39.
    19. Pirovano, Mara & Azzone, Michele, 2024. "Aim, focus, shoot. The choice of appropriate and effective macroprudential instruments," Working Paper Series 2979, European Central Bank.
    20. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España.
    21. Felipe Clavijo Ramírez & Jorge Luis Hurtado Guarín & Oscar Fernando Jaulín Méndez & Javier Pirateque Niño, 2016. "El requerimiento de capital contracíclico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 963, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Eero Tölö & Helinä Laakkonen & Simo Kalatie, 2018. "Evaluating Indicators for Use in Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 51-112, March.
    23. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2021. "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard," Occasional Papers 2111, Banco de España.
    24. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2021. "Model-based indicators for the identification of cyclical systemic risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3179-3211, December.
    25. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    countercyclical capital buffer; credit-to-GDP gap; guiding indicators; build-up phase; credit intensity; real estate prices; external imbalances; private sector debt sustainability; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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