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Estimation of a Benchmark Dose in the Presence or Absence of Hormesis Using Posterior Averaging

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  • Steven B. Kim
  • Scott M. Bartell
  • Daniel L. Gillen

Abstract

U.S. Environment Protection Agency benchmark doses for dichotomous cancer responses are often estimated using a multistage model based on a monotonic dose‐response assumption. To account for model uncertainty in the estimation process, several model averaging methods have been proposed for risk assessment. In this article, we extend the usual parameter space in the multistage model for monotonicity to allow for the possibility of a hormetic dose‐response relationship. Bayesian model averaging is used to estimate the benchmark dose and to provide posterior probabilities for monotonicity versus hormesis. Simulation studies show that the newly proposed method provides robust point and interval estimation of a benchmark dose in the presence or absence of hormesis. We also apply the method to two data sets on carcinogenic response of rats to 2,3,7,8‐tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐dioxin.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven B. Kim & Scott M. Bartell & Daniel L. Gillen, 2015. "Estimation of a Benchmark Dose in the Presence or Absence of Hormesis Using Posterior Averaging," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 396-408, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:3:p:396-408
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. John Bailer & Robert B. Noble & Matthew W. Wheeler, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 291-299, April.
    2. Hojin Moon & Hyun‐Joo Kim & James J. Chen & Ralph L. Kodell, 2005. "Model Averaging Using the Kullback Information Criterion in Estimating Effective Doses for Microbial Infection and Illness," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1147-1159, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven Kim & Jeffrey Wand & Christina Magana‐Ramirez & Jenel Fraij, 2021. "Logistic Regression Models with Unspecified Low Dose–Response Relationships and Experimental Designs for Hormesis Studies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 92-109, January.

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