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Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents

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  • Walter W. Piegorsch
  • Susan L. Cutter
  • Frank Hardisty

Abstract

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place‐based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place‐based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter & Frank Hardisty, 2007. "Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1411-1425, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:6:p:1411-1425
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gainbi Park & Zengwang Xu, 2022. "The constituent components and local indicator variables of social vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 95-120, January.
    2. Jingyu Liu & Walter W. Piegorsch & A. Grant Schissler & Susan L. Cutter, 2018. "Autologistic models for benchmark risk or vulnerability assessment of urban terrorism outcomes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 803-823, June.
    3. Kanwal Zahra & Tasneem Zafar, 2015. "Marginality as a Root Cause of Urban Poverty: A Case Study of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 629-650.
    4. Walter W. Piegorsch, 2010. "Translational benchmark risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 653-667, July.
    5. Rongchen Zhu & Xiaofeng Hu & Xin Li & Han Ye & Nan Jia, 2020. "Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Kevin Konty & Joseph R. Egger & Bonnie D. Kerker & Beth Maldin & Marisa Raphael, 2009. "Letter to the Editor," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1199-1200, September.
    7. Mathew C. Schmidtlein & Roland C. Deutsch & Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter, 2008. "A Sensitivity Analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1099-1114, August.
    8. Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2014. "Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2143-2162, December.

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