IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v27y2007i6p1411-1425.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents

Author

Listed:
  • Walter W. Piegorsch
  • Susan L. Cutter
  • Frank Hardisty

Abstract

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place‐based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place‐based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter & Frank Hardisty, 2007. "Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1411-1425, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:6:p:1411-1425
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00977.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salomon J. Sand & Dietrich Von Rosen & Agneta Falk Filipsson, 2003. "Benchmark Calculations in Risk Assessment Using Continuous Dose‐Response Information: The Influence of Variance and the Determination of a Cut‐Off Value," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5), pages 1059-1068, October.
    2. Kenny S. Crump, 1995. "Calculation of Benchmark Doses from Continuous Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 79-89, February.
    3. A. John Bailer & Robert B. Noble & Matthew W. Wheeler, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 291-299, April.
    4. Daniel Sarewitz & Roger Pielke & Mojdeh Keykhah, 2003. "Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 805-810, August.
    5. Kenneth T. Bogen & Edwin D. Jones, 2006. "Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968–2004," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 45-59, February.
    6. Paul M. Schlosser & Patrick D. Lilly & Rory B. Conolly & Derek B. Janszen & Julie S. Kimbell, 2003. "Benchmark Dose Risk Assessment for Formaldehyde Using Airflow Modeling and a Single‐Compartment, DNA‐Protein Cross‐Link Dosimetry Model to Estimate Human Equivalent Doses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 473-487, June.
    7. Howard Kunreuther, 2002. "The Role of Insurance in Managing Extreme Events: Implications for Terrorism Coverage," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 427-437, June.
    8. Paul F. Deisler, 2002. "A Perspective: Risk Analysis as a Tool for Reducing the Risks of Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 405-413, June.
    9. Daniela K. Nitcheva & Walter W. Piegorsch & R. Webster West & Ralph L. Kodell, 2005. "Multiplicity-Adjusted Inferences in Risk Assessment: Benchmark Analysis with Quantal Response Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 277-286, March.
    10. George E. Apostolakis & Douglas M. Lemon, 2005. "A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 361-376, April.
    11. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    12. Walter W. Piegorsch & R. Webster West, 2005. "Benchmark Analysis: Shopping with Proper Confidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 913-920, August.
    13. Roger D. Peng & Frederic Paik Schoenberg & James A. Woods, 2005. "A Space-Time Conditional Intensity Model for Evaluating a Wildfire Hazard Index," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 26-35, March.
    14. Howard Kunreuther, 2002. "Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 655-664, August.
    15. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2004. "Policy Watch: Challenges for Terrorism Risk Insurance in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 201-214, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gainbi Park & Zengwang Xu, 2022. "The constituent components and local indicator variables of social vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 95-120, January.
    2. Jingyu Liu & Walter W. Piegorsch & A. Grant Schissler & Susan L. Cutter, 2018. "Autologistic models for benchmark risk or vulnerability assessment of urban terrorism outcomes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 803-823, June.
    3. Kanwal Zahra & Tasneem Zafar, 2015. "Marginality as a Root Cause of Urban Poverty: A Case Study of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 629-650.
    4. Walter W. Piegorsch, 2010. "Translational benchmark risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 653-667, July.
    5. Rongchen Zhu & Xiaofeng Hu & Xin Li & Han Ye & Nan Jia, 2020. "Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Kevin Konty & Joseph R. Egger & Bonnie D. Kerker & Beth Maldin & Marisa Raphael, 2009. "Letter to the Editor," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1199-1200, September.
    7. Mathew C. Schmidtlein & Roland C. Deutsch & Walter W. Piegorsch & Susan L. Cutter, 2008. "A Sensitivity Analysis of the Social Vulnerability Index," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1099-1114, August.
    8. Cameron A. MacKenzie, 2014. "Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(12), pages 2143-2162, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jingyu Liu & Walter W. Piegorsch & A. Grant Schissler & Susan L. Cutter, 2018. "Autologistic models for benchmark risk or vulnerability assessment of urban terrorism outcomes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(3), pages 803-823, June.
    2. Walter W. Piegorsch, 2010. "Translational benchmark risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 653-667, July.
    3. Walter W. Piegorsch & Hui Xiong & Rabi N. Bhattacharya & Lizhen Lin, 2014. "Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 135-151, January.
    4. Walter W. Piegorsch & R. Webster West, 2005. "Benchmark Analysis: Shopping with Proper Confidence," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 913-920, August.
    5. Signe M. Jensen & Felix M. Kluxen & Christian Ritz, 2019. "A Review of Recent Advances in Benchmark Dose Methodology," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2295-2315, October.
    6. Signe M. Jensen & Christian Ritz, 2015. "Simultaneous Inference for Model Averaging of Derived Parameters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 68-76, January.
    7. Mastronardi, Luigi & Cavallo, Aurora & Romagnoli, Luca, 2022. "A novel composite environmental fragility index to analyse Italian ecoregions’ vulnerability," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Edris Alam & Md Sabur Khan & Roquia Salam, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment based on household views from the Dammar Char in Southeastern Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 329-344, August.
    9. Matthew W. Wheeler & A. John Bailer & Tarah Cole & Robert M. Park & Kan Shao, 2017. "Bayesian Quantile Impairment Threshold Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Endpoints," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2107-2118, November.
    10. Marin, Giovanni & Modica, Marco & Paleari, Susanna & Zoboli, Roberto, 2021. "Assessing disaster risk by integrating natural and socio-economic dimensions: A decision-support tool," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Chu‐Chih Chen & James J. Chen, 2014. "Benchmark Dose Calculation for Ordered Categorical Responses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1435-1447, August.
    12. Linn Svegrup & Jonas Johansson & Henrik Hassel, 2019. "Integration of Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequence Models: Impact on Swedish Power System Mitigation Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1970-1996, September.
    13. Hsieh, Cheng-Hsien & Feng, Cheng-Min, 2020. "The highway resilience and vulnerability in Taiwan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-9.
    14. Giovanni Marin & Marco Modica & Susanna Paleari & Roberto Zoboli, 2019. "Disaster Risk Management: Building the ‘Disaster Risk Assessment Tool’ for Italy," SEEDS Working Papers 0319, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Feb 2019.
    15. Roland C. Deutsch & Walter W. Piegorsch, 2012. "Benchmark Dose Profiles for Joint-Action Quantal Data in Quantitative Risk Assessment," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1313-1322, December.
    16. Cheng-Hsien Hsieh & Hui-Huang Tai & Yang-Ning Lee, 2014. "Port vulnerability assessment from the perspective of critical infrastructure interdependency," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 589-606, November.
    17. Kan Shao & Jeffrey S. Gift, 2014. "Model Uncertainty and Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.
    18. Shuying Li & Jun Zhuang & Shifei Shen, 2017. "Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1287-1297, July.
    19. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    20. Yi Peng, 2015. "Regional earthquake vulnerability assessment using a combination of MCDM methods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 95-110, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:27:y:2007:i:6:p:1411-1425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.