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The Use of Individual and Societal Risk Criteria Within the Dutch Flood Safety Policy—Nationwide Estimates of Societal Risk and Policy Applications

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  • Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
  • Ruben Jongejan
  • Bob Maaskant

Abstract

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost‐benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of societal risk. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.

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  • Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Ruben Jongejan & Bob Maaskant, 2011. "The Use of Individual and Societal Risk Criteria Within the Dutch Flood Safety Policy—Nationwide Estimates of Societal Risk and Policy Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 282-300, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:31:y:2011:i:2:p:282-300
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01502.x
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    1. Pieter Jan M. Stallen & Rob Geerts & Han K. Vrijling, 1996. "Three Conceptions of Quantified Societal Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(5), pages 635-644, October.
    2. Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Matthijs Kok & Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008. "Flood Risk Assessment in the Netherlands: A Case Study for Dike Ring South Holland," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1357-1374, October.
    3. Heiko Apel & Annegret Thieken & Bruno Merz & Günter Blöschl, 2006. "A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 79-100, May.
    4. van Manen, Sipke E. & Brinkhuis, Martine, 2005. "Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 229-237.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Charles Vlek, 2013. "What Can National Risk Assessors Learn from Decision Theorists and Psychologists?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(8), pages 1389-1393, August.
    4. Jongejan, R.B. & Diermanse, F. & Kanning, W. & Bottema, M., 2020. "Reliability-based partial factors for flood defenses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Tim Bedford, 2013. "Decision Making for Group Risk Reduction: Dealing with Epistemic Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1884-1898, October.
    6. R. B. Jongejan & B. Maaskant, 2015. "Quantifying Flood Risks in the Netherlands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 252-264, February.
    7. S. Pereira & J. L. Zêzere & I. Quaresma & P. P. Santos & M. Santos, 2016. "Mortality Patterns of Hydro‐Geomorphologic Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1188-1210, June.

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