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Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

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  • van Manen, Sipke E.
  • Brinkhuis, Martine

Abstract

In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.

Suggested Citation

  • van Manen, Sipke E. & Brinkhuis, Martine, 2005. "Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 229-237.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:90:y:2005:i:2:p:229-237
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2004.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuliano Di Baldassarre & Attilio Castellarin & Alberto Montanari & Armando Brath, 2009. "Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 479-496, September.
    2. Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Matthijs Kok & Johannes K. Vrijling, 2008. "Flood Risk Assessment in the Netherlands: A Case Study for Dike Ring South Holland," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1357-1374, October.
    3. Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Ruben Jongejan & Bob Maaskant, 2011. "The Use of Individual and Societal Risk Criteria Within the Dutch Flood Safety Policy—Nationwide Estimates of Societal Risk and Policy Applications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 282-300, February.
    4. Nofal, Omar M. & van de Lindt, John W. & Do, Trung Q., 2020. "Multi-variate and single-variable flood fragility and loss approaches for buildings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Eveline van Leeuwen & Peter Nijkamp & Piet Rietveld, 2009. "Climate Change: From Global Concern To Regional Challenge," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 18-38, DECEMBER.
    6. Dulebenets, Maxim A. & Abioye, Olumide F. & Ozguven, Eren Erman & Moses, Ren & Boot, Walter R. & Sando, Thobias, 2019. "Development of statistical models for improving efficiency of emergency evacuation in areas with vulnerable population," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 233-249.
    7. Leeuwen, E.S. van & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P., 2011. "Climate change: From global concern to regional challenge," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    8. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
    9. R. B. Jongejan & B. Maaskant, 2015. "Quantifying Flood Risks in the Netherlands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 252-264, February.
    10. Vana Tsimopoulou & Matthijs Kok & Johannes Vrijling, 2015. "Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 891-912, August.
    11. Arjen Hoekstra & Jean-Luc Kok, 2008. "Adapting to climate change: a comparison of two strategies for dike heightening," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 217-228, November.
    12. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz & Edwar Forero-Ortiz & María Guerrero-Hidalga & Salvador Castán & Manuel Gómez, 2020. "Flood Depth‒Damage Curves for Spanish Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, March.

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