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Visualization of uncertainty in natural hazards assessments using an interactive cartographic information system

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  • Melanie Kunz
  • Adrienne Grêt-Regamey
  • Lorenz Hurni

Abstract

Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Melanie Kunz & Adrienne Grêt-Regamey & Lorenz Hurni, 2011. "Visualization of uncertainty in natural hazards assessments using an interactive cartographic information system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1735-1751, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:3:p:1735-1751
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Seyed M. Miran & Chen Ling & Alan Gerard & Lans Rothfusz, 2019. "Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients’ Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1533-1545, July.
    2. Giovanni Fusco & Matteo Caglioni & Karine Emsellem & Myriam Merad & Diego Moreno & Christine Voiron-Canicio, 2017. "Questions of uncertainty in geography," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 49(10), pages 2261-2280, October.

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