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Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

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  • Rowena D. Kosmider
  • Pádraig Nally
  • Robin R. L. Simons
  • Adam Brouwer
  • Susan Cheung
  • Emma L. Snary
  • Marion Wooldridge

Abstract

To address the risk posed to human health by the consumption of VTEC O157 within contaminated pork, lamb, and beef products within Great Britain, a quantitative risk assessment model has been developed. This model aims to simulate the prevalence and amount of VTEC O157 in different meat products at consumption within a single model framework by adapting previously developed models. The model is stochastic in nature, enabling both variability (natural variation between animals, carcasses, products) and uncertainty (lack of knowledge) about the input parameters to be modeled. Based on the model assumptions and data, it is concluded that the prevalence of VTEC O157 in meat products (joints and mince) at consumption is low (i.e.,

Suggested Citation

  • Rowena D. Kosmider & Pádraig Nally & Robin R. L. Simons & Adam Brouwer & Susan Cheung & Emma L. Snary & Marion Wooldridge, 2010. "Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 753-765, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:5:p:753-765
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01317.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry M. Marks & Margaret E. Coleman & C.‐T. Jordan Lin & Tanya Roberts, 1998. "Topics in Microbial Risk Assessment: Dynamic Flow Tree Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 309-328, June.
    2. Tine Hald & David Vose & Henrik C. Wegener & Timour Koupeev, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Quantify the Contribution of Animal‐Food Sources to Human Salmonellosis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 255-269, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. B. Chapman & K. Pintar & B. A. Smith, 2018. "Multi‐Exposure Pathway Model to Compare Escherichia coli O157 Risks and Interventions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 392-409, February.
    2. Andreas Kiermeier & Ian Jenson & John Sumner, 2015. "Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli O157 Illness from Consumption of Hamburgers in the United States Made from Australian Manufacturing Beef," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 77-89, January.

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