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Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis

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  • Peter F. M. Teunis
  • Nico J. D. Nagelkerke
  • Charles N. Haas

Abstract

When pathogenic microorganisms enter the human body via ingestion with food or drinking water, they encounter a system of barriers mounted by the host. In order to reach parts of the intestinal tract that are suitable forgrowth and attachment, each of the bamers must be overcome successfully. The present view on infection states that at least one of the ingested pathogens must survive to start colonization. This is the basis for dose responsemodels, used for quantitative risk assessment. In this paper, the usefulness of the Beta Poisson model for multiple barriers is corroborated. Infection is associated with the presence of elevated numbers of reproducing pathogens in the intestinal tract. This does not necessarily imply illness symptoms: when intestinal microorganisms engage in damaging activities, this may lead to illness symptoms. At the same time, these activities probably elicit defensive measures from the host, promoting the removal of pathogens and terminating infection. The duration of the period of colonization reflects the balance between the colonization potential of pathogens and the strength of host defenses. Starting from the assumption that during infection the host has a certain hazard of becoming ill, a simple dose response relation for acute gastroenteritis is developed. With the use of literature data from volunteer experiments, we show that examples can be found for three possible alternatives: an increase in the probability of illness with increasingdose, a decrease with higher doses, and a probability of illness (given infection) independent of the ingested dose. These alternatives may reflect different modes of interaction between pathogens and host.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. M. Teunis & Nico J. D. Nagelkerke & Charles N. Haas, 1999. "Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1251-1260, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:6:p:1251-1260
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01143.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry M. Marks & Margaret E. Coleman & C.‐T. Jordan Lin & Tanya Roberts, 1998. "Topics in Microbial Risk Assessment: Dynamic Flow Tree Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 309-328, June.
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