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Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli O157 Illness from Consumption of Hamburgers in the United States Made from Australian Manufacturing Beef

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  • Andreas Kiermeier
  • Ian Jenson
  • John Sumner

Abstract

We analyze the risk of contracting illness due to the consumption in the United States of hamburgers contaminated with enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) of serogroup O157 produced from manufacturing beef imported from Australia. We have used a novel approach for estimating risk by using the prevalence and concentration estimates of E. coli O157 in lots of beef that were withdrawn from the export chain following detection of the pathogen. For the purpose of the present assessment an assumption was that no product is removed from the supply chain following testing. This, together with a number of additional conservative assumptions, leads to an overestimation of E. coli O157‐associated illness attributable to the consumption of ground beef patties manufactured only from Australian beef. We predict 49.6 illnesses (95%: 0.0–148.6) from the 2.46 billion hamburgers made from 155,000 t of Australian manufacturing beef exported to the United States in 2012. All these illness were due to undercooking in the home and less than one illness is predicted from consumption of hamburgers cooked to a temperature of 68 °C in quick‐service restaurants.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Kiermeier & Ian Jenson & John Sumner, 2015. "Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli O157 Illness from Consumption of Hamburgers in the United States Made from Australian Manufacturing Beef," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 77-89, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:1:p:77-89
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12248
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    1. Rowena D. Kosmider & Pádraig Nally & Robin R. L. Simons & Adam Brouwer & Susan Cheung & Emma L. Snary & Marion Wooldridge, 2010. "Attribution of Human VTEC O157 Infection from Meat Products: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 753-765, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phillip M. Gurman & Tom Ross & Andreas Kiermeier, 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2625-2645, December.
    2. Vincent Tesson & Michel Federighi & Enda Cummins & Juliana de Oliveira Mota & Sandrine Guillou & Géraldine Boué, 2020. "A Systematic Review of Beef Meat Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-28, January.

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    1. B. Chapman & K. Pintar & B. A. Smith, 2018. "Multi‐Exposure Pathway Model to Compare Escherichia coli O157 Risks and Interventions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 392-409, February.

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