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Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

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Listed:
  • Kaatje Els Bollaerts
  • Winy Messens
  • Laurent Delhalle
  • Marc Aerts
  • Yves Van der Stede
  • Jeroen Dewulf
  • Sophie Quoilin
  • Dominiek Maes
  • Koen Mintiens
  • Koen Grijspeerdt

Abstract

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON‐model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON‐model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 (SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate 4.713 × 10−5; SD 1.466 × 10−5) compared to the normal population (estimate 7.704 × 10−6; SD 5.414 × 10−6) and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross‐contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.

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  • Kaatje Els Bollaerts & Winy Messens & Laurent Delhalle & Marc Aerts & Yves Van der Stede & Jeroen Dewulf & Sophie Quoilin & Dominiek Maes & Koen Mintiens & Koen Grijspeerdt, 2009. "Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(6), pages 820-840, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:6:p:820-840
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01223.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaatje Bollaerts & Marc Aerts & Stefaan Ribbens & Yves Van der Stede & Ides Boone & Koen Mintiens, 2008. "Identification of Salmonella high risk pig‐herds in Belgium by using semiparametric quantile regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(2), pages 449-464, April.
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    3. Tine Hald & David Vose & Henrik C. Wegener & Timour Koupeev, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Quantify the Contribution of Animal‐Food Sources to Human Salmonellosis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 255-269, February.
    4. Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Kaatje Bollaerts & David Vose & Dominiek Maes & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Georges Daube & Marc Aerts & Koen Mintiens, 2009. "NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 502-517, April.
    5. Patrick Royston & Douglas G. Altman, 1994. "Regression Using Fractional Polynomials of Continuous Covariates: Parsimonious Parametric Modelling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(3), pages 429-453, September.
    6. Sido D. Mylius & Maarten J. Nauta & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "Cross‐Contamination During Food Preparation: A Mechanistic Model Applied to Chicken‐Borne Campylobacter," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 803-813, August.
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    1. Phillip M. Gurman & Tom Ross & Andreas Kiermeier, 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2625-2645, December.
    2. Emma L. Snary & Arno N. Swart & Robin R. L. Simons & Ana Rita Calado Domingues & Hakan Vigre & Eric G. Evers & Tine Hald & Andrew A. Hill, 2016. "A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 437-449, March.
    3. Kaatje Bollaerts & Winy Messens & Marc Aerts & Jeroen Dewulf & Dominiek Maes & Koen Grijspeerdt & Yves Van der Stede, 2010. "Evaluation of Scenarios for Reducing Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 853-865, May.
    4. Yangjunna Zhang & Annette M. O'Connor & Chong Wang & James S. Dickson & H. Scott Hurd & Bing Wang, 2019. "Interventions Targeting Deep Tissue Lymph Nodes May Not Effectively Reduce the Risk of Salmonellosis from Ground Pork Consumption: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2237-2258, October.

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