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Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonellosis in South Australia

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Listed:
  • K. Glass
  • E. Fearnley
  • H. Hocking
  • J. Raupach
  • M. Veitch
  • L. Ford
  • M. D. Kirk

Abstract

Salmonellosis is a significant cause of foodborne gastroenteritis in Australia, and rates of illness have increased over recent years. We adopt a Bayesian source attribution model to estimate the contribution of different animal reservoirs to illness due to Salmonella spp. in South Australia between 2000 and 2010, together with 95% credible intervals (CrI). We excluded known travel associated cases and those of rare subtypes (fewer than 20 human cases or fewer than 10 isolates from included sources over the 11‐year period), and the remaining 76% of cases were classified as sporadic or outbreak associated. Source‐related parameters were included to allow for different handling and consumption practices. We attributed 35% (95% CrI: 20–49) of sporadic cases to chicken meat and 37% (95% CrI: 23–53) of sporadic cases to eggs. Of outbreak‐related cases, 33% (95% CrI: 20–62) were attributed to chicken meat and 59% (95% CrI: 29–75) to eggs. A comparison of alternative model assumptions indicated that biases due to possible clustering of samples from sources had relatively minor effects on these estimates. Analysis of source‐related parameters showed higher risk of illness from contaminated eggs than from contaminated chicken meat, suggesting that consumption and handling practices potentially play a bigger role in illness due to eggs, considering low Salmonella prevalence on eggs. Our results strengthen the evidence that eggs and chicken meat are important vehicles for salmonellosis in South Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Glass & E. Fearnley & H. Hocking & J. Raupach & M. Veitch & L. Ford & M. D. Kirk, 2016. "Bayesian Source Attribution of Salmonellosis in South Australia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 561-570, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:3:p:561-570
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12444
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    1. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Petra Mullner & Geoff Jones & Alasdair Noble & Simon E. F. Spencer & Steve Hathaway & Nigel Peter French, 2009. "Source Attribution of Food‐Borne Zoonoses in New Zealand: A Modified Hald Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 970-984, July.
    3. Tine Hald & David Vose & Henrik C. Wegener & Timour Koupeev, 2004. "A Bayesian Approach to Quantify the Contribution of Animal‐Food Sources to Human Salmonellosis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 255-269, February.
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    1. Phillip M. Gurman & Tom Ross & Andreas Kiermeier, 2018. "Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(12), pages 2625-2645, December.

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