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Integrating Scenario Analysis and Participatory Modeling to Generate Plausible Future Narratives for Water Resources: A Case Study in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin

Author

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  • Katalina Salas

    (Deparment of Earth, Environmental, and Resource Sciences, The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Deana Pennington

    (Office of the Provost, The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

In addressing complex water management issues, participatory modeling (PM) and scenario analysis (SA) have emerged as pivotal tools for fostering stakeholder engagement, social learning, and collaborative decision-making. This study explores the efficacy of integrating PM and SA within a series of online workshops focused on the Middle Rio Grande River Basin. Data were collected using a mixed-methods approach, including surveys, workshop transcripts, and participant outputs from workshop activities. Through these workshops, participants from diverse backgrounds engaged in collaborative scenario-building exercises, interactive discussions, and hands-on simulations using the SWIM 2.0 model, fostering shared learning and deeper insights into regional water challenges. Our findings highlight the importance of group-level activities in enhancing participants’ understanding, engagement, and trust in modeling tools, which can lead to more informed decision-making processes. The workshops demonstrated significant improvements in SA completion and a deeper connection between participants and policy discussions. However, challenges remain in bridging the gap between SA and active decision-making, particularly in contexts where participants do not perceive themselves as decision-makers. This study underscores the potential of participatory approaches to address complex environmental issues, while also identifying areas for further refinement to enhance stakeholder empowerment and tool usability in collaborative settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Katalina Salas & Deana Pennington, 2024. "Integrating Scenario Analysis and Participatory Modeling to Generate Plausible Future Narratives for Water Resources: A Case Study in the Middle Rio Grande River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:23:p:10772-:d:1539542
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