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Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

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  • Oliver, John J.
  • Parrett, Emma

Abstract

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver, John J. & Parrett, Emma, 2018. "Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 339-352.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:61:y:2018:i:2:p:339-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2017.11.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paula Jarzabkowski & Sarah Kaplan, 2015. "Strategy tools-in-use: A framework for understanding “technologies of rationality” in practice," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 537-558, April.
    2. Wilburn, Kathleen & Wilburn, Ralph, 2011. "Abbreviated Scenario Thinking," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 541-550.
    3. Worthington, William J. & Collins, Jamie D. & Hitt, Michael A., 2009. "Beyond risk mitigation: Enhancing corporate innovation with scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 441-450, September.
    4. Robert M. Grant, 2003. "Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 491-517, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Filippo Zanin & Giulio Corazza, 2021. "Scenario planning, strategia e performance. Evidenze empiriche in contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(2), pages 147-164.
    2. Tser-Yieth Chen & Chi-Jui Huang, 2019. "A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Harry Suharman & Nurul Hidayah, 2021. "Essentials of Intellectual Capital to Create Higher Education Sustainable Competitive Advantage: Environment Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia Private Universities," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 382-391.
    4. Nader, Joelle & El-Khalil, Raed & Nassar, Elma & Hong, Paul, 2022. "Pandemic planning, sustainability practices, and organizational performance: An empirical investigation of global manufacturing firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    5. Young Won Park & Paul Hong, 2022. "A Research Framework for Sustainable Digital Innovation: Case Studies of Japanese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    6. Christopher W. H. Davis & Antonie J. Jetter & Philippe J. Giabbanelli, 2022. "Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Pablo Benalcazar & Jacek Kamiński & Karol Stós, 2022. "An Integrated Approach to Long-Term Fuel Supply Planning in Combined Heat and Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    8. George Cairns & George Wright, 2020. "A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    9. John J. Oliver, 2023. "Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.

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