IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/bushor/v61y2018i2p339-352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver, John J.
  • Parrett, Emma

Abstract

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver, John J. & Parrett, Emma, 2018. "Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 339-352.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:61:y:2018:i:2:p:339-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2017.11.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0007681317301684
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.bushor.2017.11.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilburn, Kathleen & Wilburn, Ralph, 2011. "Abbreviated Scenario Thinking," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 541-550.
    2. Paula Jarzabkowski & Sarah Kaplan, 2015. "Strategy tools-in-use: A framework for understanding “technologies of rationality” in practice," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 537-558, April.
    3. Worthington, William J. & Collins, Jamie D. & Hitt, Michael A., 2009. "Beyond risk mitigation: Enhancing corporate innovation with scenario planning," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 441-450, September.
    4. Robert M. Grant, 2003. "Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 491-517, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nader, Joelle & El-Khalil, Raed & Nassar, Elma & Hong, Paul, 2022. "Pandemic planning, sustainability practices, and organizational performance: An empirical investigation of global manufacturing firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Tser-Yieth Chen & Chi-Jui Huang, 2019. "A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Harry Suharman & Nurul Hidayah, 2021. "Essentials of Intellectual Capital to Create Higher Education Sustainable Competitive Advantage: Environment Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia Private Universities," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 382-391.
    4. Young Won Park & Paul Hong, 2022. "A Research Framework for Sustainable Digital Innovation: Case Studies of Japanese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Christopher W. H. Davis & Antonie J. Jetter & Philippe J. Giabbanelli, 2022. "Automatically Generating Scenarios from a Text Corpus: A Case Study on Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Pablo Benalcazar & Jacek Kamiński & Karol Stós, 2022. "An Integrated Approach to Long-Term Fuel Supply Planning in Combined Heat and Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    7. George Cairns & George Wright, 2020. "A reflection on the mass production of scenarios in response to COVID‐19," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    8. John J. Oliver, 2023. "Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    9. Filippo Zanin & Giulio Corazza, 2021. "Scenario planning, strategia e performance. Evidenze empiriche in contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2021(2), pages 147-164.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Siebelink, Remco & Hofman, Erwin & Halman, Johannes I.M. & Nee, Ingo, 2021. "Roadmapping: (Missed) opportunities to overcome strategic challenges," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 501-512.
    2. Roper, Angela & Hodari, Demian, 2015. "Strategy tools: Contextual factors impacting use and usefulness," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Moqaddamerad, Sara & Ali, Murad, 2024. "Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    5. Burt, George & Mackay, David J. & van der Heijden, Kees & Verheijdt, Charlotte, 2017. "Openness disposition: Readiness characteristics that influence participant benefits from scenario planning as strategic conversation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 16-25.
    6. Spaniol, Matthew J. & Rowland, Nicholas J., 2022. "Business ecosystems and the view from the future: The use of corporate foresight by stakeholders of the Ro-Ro shipping ecosystem in the Baltic Sea Region," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Mäkitie, Tuukka & Normann, Håkon E. & Thune, Taran M. & Sraml Gonzalez, Jakoba, 2019. "The green flings: Norwegian oil and gas industry’s engagement in offshore wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 269-279.
    8. Pedraza-Rodríguez, José A. & Ruiz-Vélez, Andrea & Sánchez-Rodríguez, M. Isabel & Fernández-Esquinas, Manuel, 2023. "Management skills and organizational culture as sources of innovation for firms in peripheral regions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Yuqiang Mai & Hualong Yang & Guangyu Zhang, 2020. "Does Business Model Innovation Enhance the Sustainable Development of New Ventures? Understanding an Inverted-U Relationship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Luoma, Jukka, 2016. "Model-based organizational decision making: A behavioral lens," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 816-826.
    11. Phillips, Paul & Moutinho, Luiz, 2014. "Critical review of strategic planning research in hospitality and tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-120.
    12. Said Yousef Dwikat & Darwina Arshad & Mohd Noor Mohd Shariff, 2023. "Effect of Competent Human Capital, Strategic Flexibility and Turbulent Environment on Sustainable Performance of SMEs in Manufacturing Industries in Palestine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-29, March.
    13. Stefan N. Groesser & Niklas Jovy, 2016. "Business model analysis using computational modeling: a strategy tool for exploration and decision-making," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 61-88, February.
    14. Hutzschenreuter, Thomas & Horstkotte, Julian, 2013. "Performance effects of international expansion processes: The moderating role of top management team experiences," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 259-277.
    15. Adilson Carlos Yoshikuni & José Eduardo R. Favaretto & Alberto Luiz Albertin & Fernando de Souza Meirelles, 2018. "The Influences of Strategic Information Systems on the Relationship between Innovation and Organizational Performance," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 15(5), pages 444-459, September.
    16. Marc Fréchet & Hervé Goy, 2017. "Does strategy formalization foster innovation? Evidence from a French sample of small to medium-sized enterprises," Post-Print hal-01623788, HAL.
    17. Su Han, 2024. "Bridging Passion and Performance: The Mediating Role of Improvisation Behavior in New Startup Ventures," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 38(1), pages 76-98.
    18. Kathleen Wilburn & Ralph Wilburn, 2018. "Challenges For Managing Business With 21st Century Technology," Review of Business and Finance Studies, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(1), pages 13-30.
    19. Haarhaus, Tim & Liening, Andreas, 2020. "Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: The role of strategic foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    20. Maria Luisa Giancaspro & Antonino Callea & Amelia Manuti, 2022. "“I Like It like That”: A Study on the Relationship between Psychological Capital, Work Engagement and Extra-Role Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:61:y:2018:i:2:p:339-352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/bushor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.