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Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy

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  • Bradfield, Ron
  • Cairns, George
  • Wright, George

Abstract

In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating ‘wicked problems’; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected time-horizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual pre-conceptions and group-level thinking.

Suggested Citation

  • Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George & Wright, George, 2015. "Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:100:y:2015:i:c:p:44-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80.
    2. Clare Rigg & Kiran Trehan, 2004. "Reflections on working with critical action learning," Action Learning: Research and Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 149-165, September.
    3. Wright, George & Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George, 2013. "Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 631-642.
    4. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    5. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Cole, Sam, 1978. "Modeling with scenarios: technology in north-south development," MPRA Paper 7847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Legaki, Nikoletta-Zampeta & Karpouzis, Kostas & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Hamari, Juho, 2021. "Gamification to avoid cognitive biases: An experiment of gamifying a forecasting course," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. MacKay, R. Bradley & Stoyanova, Veselina, 2017. "Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 88-100.
    4. Lang, Trudi & Ramírez, Rafael, 2017. "Building new social capital with scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 51-65.
    5. Tortorella, Guilherme Luz & Narayanamurthy, Gopalakrishnan & Sunder M, Vijaya & Cauchick-Miguel, Paulo A, 2021. "Operations Management teaching practices and information technologies adoption in emerging economies during COVID-19 outbreak," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

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