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Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach

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  • Piotr Daniluk

    (Faculty of Security Studies, General Tadeusz Kosciuszko Military University of Land Forces, Czajkowskiego 109, 51-147 Wrocław, Poland)

Abstract

This article presents the research results related to the methodology of threat analysis to implement in energy security. In the conducted studies, the world’s output in scenario planning and the most famous cases of global security and technology scenarios were analysed. These projects were the Lisbon Group analysis, Shell’s scenario planning concepts, and the US National Intelligence Council’s long-term analysis. In this way, I demonstrated the limitations of a scenario-based view of the issues under study, resulting mainly from considering only one type of environment. The formulated conclusions made it possible to build the author’s model of the strategic analysis process for the energy security sector. It goes beyond scenario analysis, complementing it with the sector, portfolio, and integrated analysis methods. The strategic analysis built in this way takes into account the achievements of many scientific disciplines, namely, technology, security, strategic management, foresight, international relations, and military. The multidisciplinary knowledge used to build the proposed concept will allow one to consider the increasing complexity of the global environment. Only such a scientific approach nowadays allows practical analysis and planning in the long term. Areas of special attention in strategic analysis, which constitute directions for developing research methodology, are indicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Daniluk, 2021. "Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:15:p:4639-:d:605704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kupers, Roland & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "The Essence of Scenarios," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9789089645944.
    5. Cabeza, Luisa F. & Rincón, Lídia & Vilariño, Virginia & Pérez, Gabriel & Castell, Albert, 2014. "Life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle energy analysis (LCEA) of buildings and the building sector: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 394-416.
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    Cited by:

    1. Radoslaw Wisniewski & Piotr Daniluk & Tomasz Kownacki & Aneta Nowakowska-Krystman, 2022. "Energy System Development Scenarios: Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, April.
    2. Radoslaw Wisniewski & Piotr Daniluk & Aneta Nowakowska-Krystman & Tomasz Kownacki, 2022. "Critical Success Factors of the Energy Sector Security Strategy: The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-27, August.

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