World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Seven background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents. Another chapter details their translation into multi-dimensional projections by age, sex, and level of education. The book's final chapters analyse the results, emphasizing alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. An appendix and associated web link present detailed results for all countries. The book shows that adding education to age and sex substantially alters the way we see the future. Contributors to this volume - Guy Abel, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Bilal Barakat, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Stuart Basten, University of Oxford Ramon Bauer, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography William P. Butz, Wittgenstein Centre Graziella Caselli, University of Rome Sven Drefahl, Stockholm University and Karolinska Institute Rachel Durham, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna University of Economics and Business Regina Fuchs, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Alessandra Garbero, International Fund for Agricultural Development Anne Goujon, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Samir KC, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Marc Luy, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Elsie Pamuk, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Michaela Potanckova, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Fernando Riosmena, University of Colorado at Boulder Nikola Sander, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Warren Sanderson, Stony Brook University, New York and Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Vegard Skirbekk, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Tomas Sobotka, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Erich Striessnig, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Christian Wegner-Siegmundt, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Krystof Zeman, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography