Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
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Abstract
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DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.13
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References listed on IDEAS
- F. C. Billari & R. Graziani & E. Melilli, 2012.
"Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions,"
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- Tom Wilson & Huw Brokensha & Francisco Rowe & Ludi Simpson, 2018. "Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 137-155, February.
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Cited by:
- Wilson, Tom & Grossman, Irina & Temple, Jeromey, 2023. "Evaluation of the best M4 competition methods for small area population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 110-122.
- Sigurd Dyrting & Andrew Taylor & Tom Wilson, 2024. "Application of P-TOPALS for Smoothing Input Data for Population Projections ‘At the Edge’," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-28, April.
- Philip Rees & Tom Wilson, 2023. "Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
- Grossman, Irina & Wilson, Tom & Temple, Jeromey, 2023. "Forecasting small area populations with long short-term memory networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
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More about this item
Keywords
population forecasting; forecast errors; uncertainty; forecast interval; Australia; science; communication;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General
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