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Development of Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for Agricultural Water Supply and Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Network

Author

Listed:
  • Atiyeh Bozorgi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abbas Roozbahani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany

    (University of Tehran)

  • Rouzbeh Abbassi

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

To identify and assess the impact of various hazards threaten agriculture water supply systems, the development of a risk analysis framework is inevitable in promoting sustainable agricultural development. This study aims to develop a novel multi-hazard risk assessment model by applying a Hybrid Bayesian Network for agricultural water supply and distribution systems. This model consists of discrete and continuous nodes and their probable interactions. The structure of this model is designed to assess the risk associated with the agricultural water system's for supply and distribution sections separately considering various factors such as river discharge, the inflow of water distribution system and its fluctuation, and the demand of water. The developed model is applied to the Roodasht Irrigation district located in the center of Iran to demonestrate its capability. This Irrigation district is under the threat of drought, improper performance of the ditch-riders, and operational losses. The results showed that the model in both training and test datasets has proper accuracy and performance with the root mean square error of 0.069 and 0.076, coefficient of determinations equal to 0.717 and 0.690, and the overall index of model performance equal to 0.787 and 0.671, respectively. The results of this research and the proposed model will help stakeholders and decision-makers to be aware of the probable causes and the extent of system failure and its components due to the threatening hazards. Also, it will assist in planning the allocation of irrigation water based on predictable risk associated with various hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Atiyeh Bozorgi & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany & Rouzbeh Abbassi, 2021. "Development of Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for Agricultural Water Supply and Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3139-3159, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02865-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02865-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Koo, Bonsoo, 2018. "A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-83.
    2. Morteza Babaei & Abbas Roozbahani & S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4079-4101, September.
    3. Kaghazchi, Afsaneh & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Roozbahani, Abbas, 2021. "Simulation and evaluation of agricultural water distribution and delivery systems with a Hybrid Bayesian network model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    4. Kamrani, Kazem & Roozbahani, Abbas & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2020. "Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Parisa Noorbeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Hamid Kardan Moghaddam, 2020. "Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2933-2951, July.
    6. Saeedeh Abedzadeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Ali Heidari, 2020. "Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2549-2569, June.
    7. Torres, Jacob M. & Brumbelow, Kelly & Guikema, Seth D., 2009. "Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1259-1273.
    8. Abbas Roozbahani & Ebrahim Ebrahimi & Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib, 2018. "A Framework for Ground Water Management Based on Bayesian Network and MCDM Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4985-5005, December.
    9. Zohreh Sherafatpour & Abbas Roozbahani & Yousef Hasani, 2019. "Agricultural Water Allocation by Integration of Hydro-Economic Modeling with Bayesian Networks and Random Forest Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2277-2299, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jamalnia, Aboozar & Gong, Yu & Govindan, Kannan & Bourlakis, Michael & Mangla, Sachin Kumar, 2023. "A decision support system for selection and risk management of sustainability governance approaches in multi-tier supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    3. Silvia Barbetta & Bianca Bonaccorsi & Stavroula Tsitsifli & Ivana Boljat & Papakonstantinou Argiris & Jasmina Lukač Reberski & Christian Massari & Emanuele Romano, 2022. "Assessment of Flooding Impact on Water Supply Systems: A Comprehensive Approach Based on DSS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5443-5459, November.
    4. Irfan Ahmed Shaikh & Aimrun Wayayok & Munir Ahmed Mangrio & Ziyad Ali Alhussain & Farman Ali Chandio & Zaheer Ahmed Khan & Waseem Asghar Khan & Mogtaba Mohammed & Murtada K. Elbashir & Jamshaid Ul Rah, 2022. "Optimizing Approach of Water Allocation to Off-Takes During Reduced Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 891-913, February.

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