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Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method

Author

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  • Morteza Babaei

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abbas Roozbahani

    (University of Tehran)

  • S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

Improving the efficiency of main Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems (AWCDS) has a significant impact on improving water productivity in agriculture. Therefore, risk assessment of mentioned systems is necessary to increase reliability of operational performance. Accordingly, this study for the first time presents a unique framework to assess the adequacy, equity, and efficiency of agricultural water distribution and delivery risk assessment within AWCDS. In this way, the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique is employed for risk assessment of “undesirability of supply and delivery”. The west Dez main irrigation canal in Khuzestan province of Iran was determined as the case study of the research. A set of questionnaires filled up by managers and experts of this irrigation district, the failure probabilities of the basic events are gathered in the form of linguistic terms. Due to the uncertainty in these terms, the system’s risk assessment to determine the failure probability of the top event was performed based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis method (FFTA). The results of the study showed that the failure probability in the fuzzy approach is 0.55 which is roughly 0.15 more than crisp approach. Also, the rating of the basic events based on their contribution to the occurrence of the top event was carried out using importance measures. Five major events were identified with an emphasis on operational and socio-economic issues related to distribution and delivery of water. Comparing the results of risk assessment with the mathematical model reveals that the latter’s failure probability will be less than the system’s FTA due to non-consideration of some important factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Morteza Babaei & Abbas Roozbahani & S. Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2018. "Risk Assessment of Agricultural Water Conveyance and Delivery Systems by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4079-4101, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2042-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2042-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ching, Jianye & Leu, Sou-Sen, 2009. "Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1962-1974.
    2. S. Hashemy Shahdany & J. Maestre & P. van Overloop, 2015. "Equitable Water Distribution in Main Irrigation Canals with Constrained Water Supply," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3315-3328, July.
    3. Torres, Jacob M. & Brumbelow, Kelly & Guikema, Seth D., 2009. "Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(8), pages 1259-1273.
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    Cited by:

    1. Afsaneh Kaghazchi & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany & Alireza Firoozfar, 2022. "Prioritization of agricultural water distribution operating systems based on the sustainable development indicators," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 23-40, February.
    2. Habibeh Sharifi & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany, 2021. "Evaluating the Performance of Agricultural Water Distribution Systems Using FIS, ANN and ANFIS Intelligent Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1797-1816, April.
    3. Karimi Avargani, Habib & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Hashemi Garmdareh, S. Ebrahim & Liaghat, Abdolmajid & Guan, Guanghua & Behzadi, Farhad & Milan, Sami Ghordoyee & Berndtsson, Ronny, 2023. "Operational loss estimation in irrigation canals by integrating hydraulic simulation and crop growth modeling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Panagiotis K. Marhavilas & Michael G. Tegas & Georgios K. Koulinas & Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis, 2020. "A Joint Stochastic/Deterministic Process with Multi-Objective Decision Making Risk-Assessment Framework for Sustainable Constructions Engineering Projects—A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Atiyeh Bozorgi & Abbas Roozbahani & Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany & Rouzbeh Abbassi, 2021. "Development of Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for Agricultural Water Supply and Distribution Systems Using Bayesian Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3139-3159, August.
    6. Barkhordari, Soroush & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2021. "Developing a smart operating system for fairly distribution of irrigation water, based on social, economic, and environmental considerations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    7. Saeedeh Abedzadeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Ali Heidari, 2020. "Risk Assessment of Water Resources Development Plans Using Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2549-2569, June.
    8. Avargani, Habib Karimi & Hashemy Shahdany, S. Mehdy & Kamrani, Kazem & Maestre, Jose, M. & Hashemi Garmdareh, S. Ebrahim & Liaghat, Abdolmajid, 2022. "Prioritization of surface water distribution in irrigation districts to mitigate crop yield reduction during water scarcity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    9. Qingwei Xu & Kaili Xu & Fang Zhou, 2020. "Safety Assessment of Casting Workshop by Cloud Model and Cause and Effect–LOPA to Protect Employee Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-18, April.

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