IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v30y2016i4p1415-1431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Jinjin Gu
  • Mo Li
  • Ping Guo
  • Guohe Huang

Abstract

The Shiyanghe river basin, an arid inland basin of northwest China, is taken as an example to analyze the risk for achieving the ecological planning objective in arid inland river basins under uncertainty conditions. Hydrology and management uncertainties that affect the accomplishment of ecological planning objective are analyzed quantitatively with the methods of Bayesian theory based Probabilistic model, scenario analysis and interval analysis. Bayesian probabilistic analysis method was used to analyze the hydrological uncertainties in the form of probability and interval distributions in planning period, while the scenario analysis method and interval method were used to analyze the managing uncertainties in the form of interval numbers. Instead of the ecological risk analysis, which for arid inland river basin, of studying the impact of environmental and human factor on ecological system, water resources and environment, we focused on analysing the possible impact of hydrological and management uncertainty factor on the ecological planning, and forecasting the degree of the completion under the uncertainty. Our study provided the probabilities of achieving ecological planning objective and the possible deviation of different scenarios. The more local water resources and higher level of local water resource utilization and management appeared to lead higher probability to achieve the ecological objective. This study can help environment and water resource managers and planner to formulate a rational planning for arid inland river basins under hydrological and management uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:4:p:1415-1431
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1230-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-016-1230-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-016-1230-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuesong Zhang & Kaiguang Zhao, 2012. "Bayesian Neural Networks for Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic Modeling: A Comparison of Two Schemes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2365-2382, June.
    2. Ling Zhang & Zhuotong Nan & Wenjun Yu & Yingchun Ge, 2015. "Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4701-4717, October.
    3. Simon Wu & Jonathan Li & G. Huang, 2008. "Characterization and Evaluation of Elevation Data Uncertainty in Water Resources Modeling with GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 959-972, August.
    4. Gokmen Tayfur & Luca Brocca, 2015. "Fuzzy Logic for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Considering Soil Moisture," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3519-3533, August.
    5. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Erratum to: Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1173-1174, March.
    6. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1149-1172, March.
    7. Hai-Long Liu & An-Ming Bao & Xiang-Liang Pan & Xi Chen, 2013. "Effect of Land-Use Change and Artificial Recharge on the Groundwater in an Arid Inland River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3775-3790, August.
    8. E.V. Taguas & J. Gómez & P. Denisi & L. Mateos, 2015. "Modelling the Rainfall-Runoff Relationships in a Large Olive Orchard Catchment in Southern Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2361-2375, May.
    9. Wouter Buytaert & Jan Friesen & Jens Liebe & Ralf Ludwig, 2012. "Assessment and Management of Water Resources in Developing, Semi-arid and Arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 841-844, March.
    10. Francisco Martin-Carrasco & Luis Garrote & Ana Iglesias & Luis Mediero, 2013. "Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1693-1705, April.
    11. Klaus Fraedrich & Frank Sielmann & Danlu Cai & Ling Zhang & Xiuhua Zhu, 2015. "Validation of an Ideal Rainfall-Runoff Chain in a GCM Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 313-324, January.
    12. Hsin-Ting SU & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2014. "Comparisons of Risk-based Decision Rules for the Application of Water Resources Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3921-3935, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dan Wang & Shuanghu Zhang & Guoli Wang & Yin Liu & Hao Wang & Jingjing Gu, 2022. "Reservoir Regulation for Ecological Protection and Remediation: A Case Study of the Irtysh River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Lifang Wang & Zhenlong Nie & Min Liu & Le Cao & Pucheng Zhu & Qinlong Yuan, 2022. "Rational Allocation of Water Resources in the Arid Area of Northwestern China Based on Numerical Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Liu, Xiao & Li, Mo & Guo, Ping & Zhang, Zhongxue, 2019. "Optimization of water and fertilizer coupling system based on rice grain quality," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 34-46.
    4. Yan, Dong & Chen, Lin & Sun, Huaiwei & Liao, Weihong & Chen, Haorui & Wei, Guanghui & Zhang, Wenxin & Tuo, Ye, 2022. "Allocation of ecological water rights considering ecological networks in arid watersheds: A framework and case study of Tarim River basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    2. T. Chatzivasileiadis & F. Estrada & M. W. Hofkes & R. S. J. Tol, 2019. "Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1183-1217, March.
    3. Wei-Chih Lin & Yu-Pin Lin & Johnathen Anthony & Tsun-Su Ding, 2015. "Avian Conservation Areas as a Proxy for Contaminated Soil Remediation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    4. N. Graveline & B. Aunay & J. Fusillier & J. Rinaudo, 2014. "Coping with Urban & Agriculture Water Demand Uncertainty in Water Management Plan Design: the Interest of Participatory Scenario Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3075-3093, August.
    5. A. Alvarado & M. Esteller & E. Quentin & J. Expósito, 2016. "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS Approach for Prioritization of Drinking Water Utilities Protection Based on their Vulnerability to Contamination," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1549-1566, March.
    6. Pongkijvorasin, Sittidaj & Burnett, Kimberly & Wada, Christopher, 2018. "Joint Management of an Interconnected Coastal Aquifer and Invasive Tree," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 125-135.
    7. C. Dai & Y. Cai & Y. Liu & W. Wang & H. Guo, 2015. "A Generalized Interval Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming Method for Domestic Wastewater Management Under Uncertainty – A Case Study of Kunming, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3015-3036, July.
    8. A. Alvarado & M. V. Esteller & E. Quentin & J. L. Expósito, 2016. "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS Approach for Prioritization of Drinking Water Utilities Protection Based on their Vulnerability to Contamination," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1549-1566, March.
    9. Tom Roach & Zoran Kapelan & Ralph Ledbetter, 2018. "A Resilience-Based Methodology for Improved Water Resources Adaptation Planning under Deep Uncertainty with Real World Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2031, April.
    10. Baptiste François & Alexis Dufour & Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen & Alexa Bruce & Dong Kwan Park & Casey Brown, 2024. "From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Meira Levy & Mashor Housh & Alan Hartman & Ofira Ayalon & Bracha Nir & Avi Ostfeld & Irit Hadar, 2024. "Muddy Waters: Design Thinking for Understanding the Multi-Organizational Problem Space of the Water Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    12. Mashor Housh & Tomer Aharon, 2021. "Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-27, March.
    13. Jordehi, A. Rezaee, 2018. "How to deal with uncertainties in electric power systems? A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 145-155.
    14. Lulseged Tamene & Quang Le & Paul Vlek, 2014. "A Landscape Planning and Management Tool for Land and Water Resources Management: An Example Application in Northern Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 407-424, January.
    15. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    16. Tiku T. Tanyimboh & Anna M. Czajkowska, 2018. "Joint Entropy Based Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimization of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2569-2584, June.
    17. Jean P. Palutikof & Roger B. Street & Edward P. Gardiner, 2019. "Decision support platforms for climate change adaptation: an overview and introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 459-476, April.
    18. Basem Shomar & Mohamed Darwish & Candace Rowell, 2014. "What does Integrated Water Resources Management from Local to Global Perspective Mean? Qatar as a Case Study, the Very Rich Country with No Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2781-2791, August.
    19. B. Yan & X. Su & Y. Chen, 2009. "Functional Structure and Data Management of Urban Water Supply Network Based on GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2633-2653, October.
    20. Jun Zhao & Juliang Jin & Jiezhong Zhu & Jinchao Xu & Qingfeng Hang & Yaqian Chen & Donghao Han, 2016. "Water Resources Risk Assessment Model based on the Subjective and Objective Combination Weighting Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3027-3042, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:4:p:1415-1431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.