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Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

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  • Brett Korteling
  • Suraje Dessai
  • Zoran Kapelan

Abstract

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resources plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resources planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process separate from water resource simulation modelling. This process quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. This paper utilises an integrated method based on Information-Gap decision theory to quantitatively assess the robustness of various supply side and demand side management options over a broad range of plausible futures. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the headroom method, a preference reversal can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50 % or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options The additional use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options, that perform best in regards to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This paper illustrates how an Information-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1149-1172, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:4:p:1149-1172
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0164-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiku T. Tanyimboh & Anna M. Czajkowska, 2018. "Joint Entropy Based Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimization of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2569-2584, June.
    2. A. Alvarado & M. Esteller & E. Quentin & J. Expósito, 2016. "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS Approach for Prioritization of Drinking Water Utilities Protection Based on their Vulnerability to Contamination," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1549-1566, March.
    3. Jean P. Palutikof & Roger B. Street & Edward P. Gardiner, 2019. "Decision support platforms for climate change adaptation: an overview and introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 459-476, April.
    4. Mashor Housh & Tomer Aharon, 2021. "Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Pongkijvorasin, Sittidaj & Burnett, Kimberly & Wada, Christopher, 2018. "Joint Management of an Interconnected Coastal Aquifer and Invasive Tree," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 125-135.
    6. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    7. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    8. Lulseged Tamene & Quang Le & Paul Vlek, 2014. "A Landscape Planning and Management Tool for Land and Water Resources Management: An Example Application in Northern Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 407-424, January.
    9. T. Chatzivasileiadis & F. Estrada & M. W. Hofkes & R. S. J. Tol, 2019. "Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1183-1217, March.
    10. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    11. A. Alvarado & M. V. Esteller & E. Quentin & J. L. Expósito, 2016. "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and GIS Approach for Prioritization of Drinking Water Utilities Protection Based on their Vulnerability to Contamination," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1549-1566, March.
    12. Tom Roach & Zoran Kapelan & Ralph Ledbetter, 2018. "A Resilience-Based Methodology for Improved Water Resources Adaptation Planning under Deep Uncertainty with Real World Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2031, April.
    13. Baptiste François & Alexis Dufour & Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen & Alexa Bruce & Dong Kwan Park & Casey Brown, 2024. "From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-23, July.
    14. Wei-Chih Lin & Yu-Pin Lin & Johnathen Anthony & Tsun-Su Ding, 2015. "Avian Conservation Areas as a Proxy for Contaminated Soil Remediation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    15. C. Dai & Y. Cai & Y. Liu & W. Wang & H. Guo, 2015. "A Generalized Interval Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming Method for Domestic Wastewater Management Under Uncertainty – A Case Study of Kunming, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3015-3036, July.
    16. Jordehi, A. Rezaee, 2018. "How to deal with uncertainties in electric power systems? A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 145-155.
    17. N. Graveline & B. Aunay & J. Fusillier & J. Rinaudo, 2014. "Coping with Urban & Agriculture Water Demand Uncertainty in Water Management Plan Design: the Interest of Participatory Scenario Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3075-3093, August.
    18. Meira Levy & Mashor Housh & Alan Hartman & Ofira Ayalon & Bracha Nir & Avi Ostfeld & Irit Hadar, 2024. "Muddy Waters: Design Thinking for Understanding the Multi-Organizational Problem Space of the Water Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.

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