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A Resilience-Based Methodology for Improved Water Resources Adaptation Planning under Deep Uncertainty with Real World Application

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Roach

    (University of Exeter
    HR Wallingford)

  • Zoran Kapelan

    (University of Exeter)

  • Ralph Ledbetter

    (HR Wallingford)

Abstract

Resilience of a water resource system in terms of water supply meeting future demand under climate change and other uncertainties is a prominent issue worldwide. This paper presents an alternative methodology to the conventional engineering practice in the UK for identifying long-term adaptation planning strategies in the context of resilience. More specifically, a resilience-based multi-objective optimization method is proposed that identifies Pareto optimal future adaptation strategies by maximizing a water supply system’s resilience (calculated as the maximum recorded duration of a water deficit period over a given planning horizon) and minimizing total associated costs, subject to meeting target system robustness to uncertain projections (scenarios) of future supply and demand. The method is applied to a real-world case study for Bristol Water’s water resource zone and the results are compared with those derived using a more conventional engineering practice in the UK, utilizing a least-cost optimization analysis constrained to a target reliability level. The results obtained reveal that the strategy solution derived using the current practice methodology produce a less resilient system than the similar costing solutions identified using the proposed resilience driven methodology. At the same time, resilience driven strategies are only slightly less reliable suggesting that trade-off exists between the two. Further examination of intervention strategies selected shows that the conventional methodology encourages implementation of more lower cost intervention options early in the planning horizon (to achieve higher system reliability) whereas the resilience-based methodology encourages more uniform intervention options sequenced over the planning horizon (to achieve higher system resilience).

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Roach & Zoran Kapelan & Ralph Ledbetter, 2018. "A Resilience-Based Methodology for Improved Water Resources Adaptation Planning under Deep Uncertainty with Real World Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2031, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1914-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1914-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
    2. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    3. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Erratum to: Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1173-1174, March.
    4. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1149-1172, March.
    5. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
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    1. Adrian J. Hickford & Simon P. Blainey & Alejandro Ortega Hortelano & Raghav Pant, 2018. "Resilience engineering: theory and practice in interdependent infrastructure systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 278-291, September.
    2. Yizhong Chen & Li He & Hongwei Lu & Jing Li & Lixia Ren, 2018. "Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3135-3153, July.
    3. Maria Cunha & João Marques & Dragan Savić, 2020. "A Flexible Approach for the Reinforcement of Water Networks Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4469-4490, November.
    4. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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