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Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China

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  • Ling Zhang
  • Zhuotong Nan
  • Wenjun Yu
  • Yingchun Ge

Abstract

This study investigated land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) and hydrological responses under consistent climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), a typical arid inland river basin in northwest China. LUCC was first projected using the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model. Two cases (Case 1 and Case 2) were then established to quantify the hydrological responses to single climate change and the combined responses to climate change and LUCC with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results of LUCC modeling under the A1B and B1 scenarios present distinct regional characteristics and also indicate that the projected future land-use patterns are not appreciably different than the actual map for the year 2000. In Case 1, which only considers the impacts of single climate change, overall, the streamflow at the outlet of the upper HRB is projected to decline, whereas at the outlet of the middle HRB to increase, under both climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes is expect to increase under both scenarios. In Case 2, which considers the combined impacts of climate change and LUCC, the changes in streamflow and frequency of hydrological extremes are found to be remarkably consistent with those in Case 1. The results imply that climate change rather than LUCC are primarily responsible for the hydrological variations. The role of LUCC varies with regions in the context of climate change dominated hydrological responses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Zhang & Zhuotong Nan & Wenjun Yu & Yingchun Ge, 2015. "Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4701-4717, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4701-4717
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9
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    1. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    2. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. N. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    3. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    4. Guofeng Wang & Nan Lin & Xiaoxue Zhou & Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng, 2018. "Three-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis of Agricultural Water Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    6. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    7. Ying Zhang & Ling Zhang & Jinliang Hou & Juan Gu & Chunlin Huang, 2017. "Development of an Evapotranspiration Data Assimilation Technique for Streamflow Estimates: A Case Study in a Semi-Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Liu Liu & Zezhong Guo & Guanhua Huang & Ruotong Wang, 2019. "Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Mudassar Iqbal & Jun Wen & Muhammad Masood & Muhammad Umer Masood & Muhammad Adnan, 2022. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Hydrological Processes of the Source Region of Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Zhenliang Yin & Qi Feng & Linshan Yang & Xiaohu Wen & Jianhua Si & Songbing Zou, 2017. "Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Xin Jin & Yanxiang Jin & Xufeng Mao, 2019. "Land Use/Cover Change Effects on River Basin Hydrological Processes Based on a Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China’s Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.

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