IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v29y2015i13p4701-4717.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ling Zhang
  • Zhuotong Nan
  • Wenjun Yu
  • Yingchun Ge

Abstract

This study investigated land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) and hydrological responses under consistent climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), a typical arid inland river basin in northwest China. LUCC was first projected using the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects (Dyna-CLUE) model. Two cases (Case 1 and Case 2) were then established to quantify the hydrological responses to single climate change and the combined responses to climate change and LUCC with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results of LUCC modeling under the A1B and B1 scenarios present distinct regional characteristics and also indicate that the projected future land-use patterns are not appreciably different than the actual map for the year 2000. In Case 1, which only considers the impacts of single climate change, overall, the streamflow at the outlet of the upper HRB is projected to decline, whereas at the outlet of the middle HRB to increase, under both climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes is expect to increase under both scenarios. In Case 2, which considers the combined impacts of climate change and LUCC, the changes in streamflow and frequency of hydrological extremes are found to be remarkably consistent with those in Case 1. The results imply that climate change rather than LUCC are primarily responsible for the hydrological variations. The role of LUCC varies with regions in the context of climate change dominated hydrological responses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Zhang & Zhuotong Nan & Wenjun Yu & Yingchun Ge, 2015. "Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4701-4717, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4701-4717
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng Shi & Chao Chen & Ragahavan Srinivasan & Xuesong Zhang & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang & Simin Qu & Xi Chen & Qiongfang Li, 2011. "Evaluating the SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed and a Comparison with the XAJ Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2595-2612, August.
    2. M. Viola & C. Mello & S. Beskow & L. Norton, 2014. "Impacts of Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters, Southeastern Brazil," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4537-4550, October.
    3. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    4. Chong-yu Xu, 1999. "Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 369-382, October.
    5. Shoma Tanzeeba & Thian Gan, 2012. "Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 355-386, May.
    6. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    7. Yong Wang & Hong-lang Xiao & Rui-fang Wang, 2009. "Water Scarcity and Water Use in Economic Systems in Zhangye City, Northwestern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2655-2668, October.
    8. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    2. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. N. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    3. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    4. Guofeng Wang & Nan Lin & Xiaoxue Zhou & Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng, 2018. "Three-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis of Agricultural Water Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    6. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    7. Ying Zhang & Ling Zhang & Jinliang Hou & Juan Gu & Chunlin Huang, 2017. "Development of an Evapotranspiration Data Assimilation Technique for Streamflow Estimates: A Case Study in a Semi-Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Liu Liu & Zezhong Guo & Guanhua Huang & Ruotong Wang, 2019. "Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Mudassar Iqbal & Jun Wen & Muhammad Masood & Muhammad Umer Masood & Muhammad Adnan, 2022. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Hydrological Processes of the Source Region of Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Zhenliang Yin & Qi Feng & Linshan Yang & Xiaohu Wen & Jianhua Si & Songbing Zou, 2017. "Long Term Quantification of Climate and Land Cover Change Impacts on Streamflow in an Alpine River Catchment, Northwestern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Xin Jin & Yanxiang Jin & Xufeng Mao, 2019. "Land Use/Cover Change Effects on River Basin Hydrological Processes Based on a Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China’s Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiezhu Yan & Jianwen Bai & Amelia LEE ZHI YI & Zhenyao Shen, 2018. "SWAT-Simulated Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Human Activities in the Miyun Reservoir Basin by Considering Streamflow Components," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan, 2015. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak Series, Adopting Climate Indices and Check Dam Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5533-5550, December.
    3. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    4. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    5. Lu Zhuo & Dawei Han & Qiang Dai & Tanvir Islam & Prashant Srivastava, 2015. "Appraisal of NLDAS-2 Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moistures for Hydrological Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3503-3517, August.
    6. Ferdous Ahmed, 2012. "A Hydrologic Model of Kemptville Basin—Calibration and Extended Validation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2583-2604, July.
    7. Manohar Arora & Pratap Singh & N. Goel & R. Singh, 2008. "Climate Variability Influences on Hydrological Responses of a Large Himalayan Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1461-1475, October.
    8. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    9. Menghao Wang & Shanhu Jiang & Liliang Ren & Chong-Yu Xu & Linyong Wei & Hao Cui & Fei Yuan & Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang, 2022. "The Development of a Nonstationary Standardised Streamflow Index Using Climate and Reservoir Indices as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1377-1392, March.
    10. Ali Suliman & Milad Jajarmizadeh & Sobri Harun & Intan Mat Darus, 2015. "Comparison of Semi-Distributed, GIS-Based Hydrological Models for the Prediction of Streamflow in a Large Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3095-3110, July.
    11. Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    12. Parisa Ashofteh & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2013. "Scenario Assessment of Streamflow Simulation and its Transition Probability in Future Periods Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 255-274, January.
    13. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    14. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    15. Fawen Li & Huifeng Liu & Xu Chen & Dong Yu, 2019. "Trivariate Copula Based Evaluation Model of Water Accessibility," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3211-3225, July.
    16. Jianzhuang Pang & Huilan Zhang, 2023. "Global map of a comprehensive drought/flood index and analysis of controlling environmental factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 267-293, March.
    17. Yiting Shao & Xiaohui Zhai & Xingmin Mu & Sen Zheng & Dandan Shen & Jinglin Qian, 2024. "An Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alterations in the Danjiang River Watershed for Sustainable Water Resource Management by Different Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-23, September.
    18. Bhumika Uniyal & Madan Jha & Arbind Verma, 2015. "Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4767-4785, October.
    19. Wu, Feng & Zhan, Jinyan & Güneralp, İnci, 2015. "Present and future of urban water balance in the rapidly urbanizing Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 254-264.
    20. Shawei He & Keith Hipel & D. Kilgour, 2014. "Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1823-1837, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4701-4717. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.