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From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Baptiste François

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Alexis Dufour

    (San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
    Now at: Hydro-Quebec, Environment and Operations Support)

  • Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Alexa Bruce

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Dong Kwan Park

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Casey Brown

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

Water resources managers face decisions related to building new infrastructure to increase water system resilience to climate and demand changes. To inform this adaptation planning process, current decision-making methods commonly use scenario approaches to estimate the benefit of adaptation options. While effective, these new analyses require communication of complicated findings to often nontechnical audiences. This paper introduces a pragmatic approach that uses the results from a bottom-up assessment of vulnerability of the water system with future climate projection-based probabilities of climate change to select a single planning scenario that encapsulates the decision-makers’ chosen level of robustness for their system. Contrary to typical implementation of option analysis under deep climate uncertainty, the proposed pragmatic approach does not require the analyst to evaluate each portfolio of adaptation options against all possible states of the world, significantly reducing the required computational costs and communication challenges. It also aligns with the planning scenario approach used in practice by water utilities. The modeling framework is illustrated for the regional water system operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (California, United States) for which changes in average temperature, precipitation and urban demand are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Baptiste François & Alexis Dufour & Thi Nhu Khanh Nguyen & Alexa Bruce & Dong Kwan Park & Casey Brown, 2024. "From many futures to one: climate-informed planning scenario analysis for resource-efficient deep climate uncertainty analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03772-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03772-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Ray & Sungwook Wi & Andrew Schwarz & Matthew Correa & Minxue He & Casey Brown, 2020. "Vulnerability and risk: climate change and water supply from California’s Central Valley water system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 177-199, July.
    2. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Erratum to: Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1173-1174, March.
    3. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1149-1172, March.
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