IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v175y2020icp3-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods

Author

Listed:
  • Moallemi, Enayat A.
  • Elsawah, Sondoss
  • Ryan, Michael J.

Abstract

Uncertainty in model-based decision support is commonly addressed using mixed methods rather than a single method. Different mixes of methods result in different modelling and processes for robust decision support, and subsequently different decision outcomes. This article focuses on the notion of ‘good’ modelling practice and develops a reporting guideline to make the use of multiple methods in robust decision support transparent. The guideline raises awareness about the characteristics of methodological and mixing design choices made throughout the modelling process. While not intending to be universally applicable, the guideline represents a move towards the development of universal standards to promote the generalisability, reproducibility, and comparability of different practices of robust decision support and to improve the recognition of the values of specific robust decision support frameworks. The article demonstrates the process for the use of mixed methods in an illustrative case in asset life cycle planning. The case study explains choices made at each step of this mixing process and presents justifications for the choices made, using the suggested guideline. The illustrative case also demonstrates generated decision insights resulted from the choices made.

Suggested Citation

  • Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:175:y:2020:i:c:p:3-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2019.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475419301508
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2019.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James S. Hodges, 1991. "Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 355-365, June.
    2. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P., 2016. "Path dependence and biases in the even swaps decision analysis method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 890-898.
    3. Saul I. Gass, 1984. "Documenting a Computer-Based Model," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 84-93, June.
    4. Don Husereau & Michael Drummond & Stavros Petrou & Chris Carswell & David Moher & Dan Greenberg & Federico Augustovski & Andrew Briggs & Josephine Mauskopf & Elizabeth Loder, 2013. "Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(3), pages 367-372, June.
    5. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Steve Bankes, 1993. "Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 435-449, June.
    7. Jim W. Hall & Robert J. Lempert & Klaus Keller & Andrew Hackbarth & Christophe Mijere & David J. McInerney, 2012. "Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1657-1672, October.
    8. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
    9. Jaap C. J. Kwadijk & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan P. M. Mulder & Marco M. C. Hoogvliet & Ad B. M. Jeuken & Rob A. A. van der Krogt & Niels G. C. van Oostrom & Harry A. Schelfhout & Emiel H. van Velzen & H, 2010. "Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(5), pages 729-740, September.
    10. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    11. Dagmar Waltemath & Richard Adams & Daniel A Beard & Frank T Bergmann & Upinder S Bhalla & Randall Britten & Vijayalakshmi Chelliah & Michael T Cooling & Jonathan Cooper & Edmund J Crampin & Alan Garny, 2011. "Minimum Information About a Simulation Experiment (MIASE)," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(4), pages 1-4, April.
    12. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    13. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
    14. Hamarat, Caner & Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 408-418.
    15. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Erratum to: Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1173-1174, March.
    16. Brett Korteling & Suraje Dessai & Zoran Kapelan, 2013. "Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(4), pages 1149-1172, March.
    17. Cira,Dean A. & Kalra,Nidhi Rajiv & Lempert,Robert J. & Lotsch,Alexander & Mao, Zhimin & Peyraud, Suzanne & Bach,Sinh Tan, 2013. "Ensuring robust flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6465, The World Bank.
    18. Christopher P. Weaver & Robert J. Lempert & Casey Brown & John A. Hall & David Revell & Daniel Sarewitz, 2013. "Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), pages 39-60, January.
    19. Graham Kendall & Ruibin Bai & Jacek Błazewicz & Patrick De Causmaecker & Michel Gendreau & Robert John & Jiawei Li & Barry McCollum & Erwin Pesch & Rong Qu & Nasser Sabar & Greet Vanden Berghe , 2016. "Good Laboratory Practice for optimization research," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(4), pages 676-689, April.
    20. Morgan, Jennifer Sian & Howick, Susan & Belton, Valerie, 2017. "A toolkit of designs for mixing Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 907-918.
    21. Sleptchenko, Andrei & Turan, Hasan Hüseyin & Pokharel, Shaligram & ElMekkawy, Tarek Y., 2019. "Cross-training policies for repair shops with spare part inventories," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 334-345.
    22. Mingers, John & Brocklesby, John, 1997. "Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 489-509, October.
    23. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
    24. Warren E. Walker & Vincent A. W. J. Marchau & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Wil A. H. Thissen & Warren E. Walker (ed.), Public Policy Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 215-261, Springer.
    25. Moallemi, Enayat A. & de Haan, Fjalar & Kwakkel, Jan & Aye, Lu, 2017. "Narrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 271-287.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monks, Thomas & Harper, Alison & Anagnostou, Anastasia & Taylor, Simon J.E., 2022. "Open Science for Computer Simulation," OSF Preprints zpxtm, Center for Open Science.
    2. Daniel C. Kenny & Juan Castilla-Rho, 2022. "No Stakeholder Is an Island: Human Barriers and Enablers in Participatory Environmental Modelling," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Paredes-Vergara, Matías & Palma-Behnke, Rodrigo & Haas, Jannik, 2024. "Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Kwakkel, J.H. & Cunningham, S.C., 2016. "Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 124-134.
    5. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Parker, Andrew M. & Srinivasan, Sinduja V. & Lempert, Robert J. & Berry, Sandra H., 2015. "Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-77.
    8. Jan H. Kwakkel, 2019. "A generalized many‐objective optimization approach for scenario discovery," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    9. Julie E. Shortridge & Seth D. Guikema, 2016. "Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision‐Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(12), pages 2298-2312, December.
    10. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
    12. Chamon Wieles & Jan Kwakkel & Willem L. Auping & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Scenario discovery to address deep uncertainty in monetary policy," Working Papers 818, DNB.
    13. Bhave, Ajay Gajanan & Conway, Declan & Dessai, Suraje & Stainforth, David A., 2017. "Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Lempert Robert J., 2014. "Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 487-514, December.
    15. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
    16. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
    17. William Mobley & Kayode O. Atoba & Wesley E. Highfield, 2020. "Uncertainty in Flood Mitigation Practices: Assessing the Economic Benefits of Property Acquisition and Elevation in Flood-Prone Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, March.
    18. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Tom Roach & Zoran Kapelan & Ralph Ledbetter, 2018. "A Resilience-Based Methodology for Improved Water Resources Adaptation Planning under Deep Uncertainty with Real World Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2031, April.
    20. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:175:y:2020:i:c:p:3-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.