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Validation of an Ideal Rainfall-Runoff Chain in a GCM Environment

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  • Klaus Fraedrich
  • Frank Sielmann
  • Danlu Cai
  • Ling Zhang
  • Xiuhua Zhu

Abstract

A biased coinflip Ansatz provides a stochastic regional scale land surface climate model of minimum complexity, which represents physical and stochastic properties of an ideal rainfall–runoff chain. The solution yields the empirically derived Schreiber formula as an Arrhenius-type equation of state W = exp(−D). It is associated with two thresholds and combines river runoff Ro, precipitation P and potential evaporation N as flux ratios, which represent water efficiency, W = Ro/P, and vegetation states, D = N/P. This stochastic rainfall–runoff chain is analyzed utilizing a global climate model (GCM) environment. The following results are obtained for present and future climate settings: (i) The climate mean rainfall-runoff chain is validated in terms of consistency and predictability, which demonstrate the stochastic rainfall–runoff chain to be a viable surrogate model for simulating means and variability of regional climates. (ii) Climate change is analyzed in terms of runoff sensitivity/elasticity and attribution measures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Fraedrich & Frank Sielmann & Danlu Cai & Ling Zhang & Xiuhua Zhu, 2015. "Validation of an Ideal Rainfall-Runoff Chain in a GCM Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 313-324, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:313-324
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0703-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.
    2. Jinjin Gu & Mo Li & Ping Guo & Guohe Huang, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1415-1431, March.

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