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Scenario Assessment of Streamflow Simulation and its Transition Probability in Future Periods Under Climate Change

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  • Parisa Ashofteh
  • Omid Bozorg Haddad
  • Miguel Mariño

Abstract

The effect of climate change on water resources is an important challenge. To analyze the negative effects of this phenomenon and recommend adaptive measures, it is necessary to assess streamflow simulation scenarios and streamflow transition probabilities in future periods. This paper employs the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) model to generate climate change scenarios in future periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) and under A2 emission scenarios. By introducing climatic variable time series in future periods to the IHACRES (Identification of unit Hydrographs And Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow data) hydrological model, long-term streamflow simulation scenarios are produced. By fitting statistically different distributions on runoff produced by using goodness-of-fit tests, the most appropriate statistical distribution for each month is chosen and relevant statistical parameters are extracted and compared with statistical parameters of runoff in the base period. Results show that long-term annual runoff average in the three future periods compared to the period 2000–1971 will decrease 22, 11, and 65 %, respectively. ِDespite the reduction in total runoff volume in future periods compared to the baseline period, the decrease is related to medium and high flows. In low flows, total runoff volumes for future periods compared to the baseline period will increase 47, 41, and 14 %, respectively. To further assess the impact of annual average runoff on flows, it is necessary to examine the correlation of time series using streamflow transition probabilities. To compare the streamflow transition probability in each of the future periods with base period streamflow in each month, streamflow is discretized and performance criteria are used. Results show a low coefficient of correlation and high error indicators. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Parisa Ashofteh & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2013. "Scenario Assessment of Streamflow Simulation and its Transition Probability in Future Periods Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 255-274, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:255-274
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0182-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kirsten Harma & Mark Johnson & Stewart Cohen, 2012. "Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple, Interacting Stressors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 667-689, February.
    2. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
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    2. Nafiseh Bahrami & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Ghazi Al-Rawas & Khalifa Al-Jabri & Amir H. Gandomi, 2023. "Optimal Treated Wastewater Allocation Among Stakeholders Based on an Agent-based Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(1), pages 135-156, January.
    3. Parvin Golfam & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Taher Rajaee & Xuefeng Chu, 2019. "Prioritization of Water Allocation for Adaptation to Climate Change Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3401-3416, August.
    4. Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Taher Rajaee & Parvin Golfam, 2017. "Assessment of Water Resources Development Projects under Conditions of Climate Change Using Efficiency Indexes (EIs)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3723-3744, September.
    5. Parisa Sarzaeim & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Babak Zolghadr-Asli & Elahe Fallah-Mehdipour & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2018. "Optimization of Run-of-River Hydropower Plant Design under Climate Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3919-3934, September.
    6. Firoozeh Azadi & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2019. "Reservoir Water-Quality Projections under Climate-Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 401-421, January.
    7. Arvin Samadi-koucheksaraee & Iman Ahmadianfar & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Seyed Amin Asghari-pari, 2019. "Gradient Evolution Optimization Algorithm to Optimize Reservoir Operation Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 603-625, January.

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