IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v318y2015icp254-264.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Present and future of urban water balance in the rapidly urbanizing Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Feng
  • Zhan, Jinyan
  • Güneralp, İnci

Abstract

Urbanization impacts water availability by increasing water demand due to economic development and population growth; in turn, the availability of water affects the growth rate of urbanization. In addition, urbanization alters the hydrologic, or flow, regime of rivers by increasing impervious surface cover. Utilizing an integrated modeling framework linking urban-land expansion, water-allocation, and hydrological processes, this study examines the combined impacts of the changes in land use–land cover and economic activity due to urbanization and in climatic conditions on water resources in the Heihe River Basin in northwest China over the period of 2010–2050. The redistribution of limited water supplies and the increase in water consumption are identified as to pose the highest pressures on water resources resulting from rapid urbanization. The findings of the study indicate that total water consumption is expected to increase from 21.74×108m3 in 2010 to 24.35×108m3 in 2050. In addition, the runoff in the downstream reach of the basin is forecasted to increase by 9.14% due to combined effects of urban expansion and climatic changes. This indicates that more water can be withdrawn from the Heihe River to meet the increasing water demand due to urbanization in the middle reach if water demand for ecological sustainability and functioning of the downstream reach remains unchanged. The integrated framework developed here can serve as a useful tool to examine the impact of various development scenarios with the aim of successfully allocating water resources and maximizing water use efficiency in the Heihei River Basin as well as other basins elsewhere with similar characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Feng & Zhan, Jinyan & Güneralp, İnci, 2015. "Present and future of urban water balance in the rapidly urbanizing Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 254-264.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:318:y:2015:i:c:p:254-264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001400605X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiangzheng Deng & Fan Zhang & Zhan Wang & Xing Li & Tao Zhang, 2014. "An Extended Input Output Table Compiled for Analyzing Water Demand and Consumption at County Level in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Chao Bao & Chuang-lin Fang, 2012. "Water Resources Flows Related to Urbanization in China: Challenges and Perspectives for Water Management and Urban Development," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 531-552, January.
    3. Bertinelli, Luisito & Black, Duncan, 2004. "Urbanization and growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 80-96, July.
    4. Liu, Gengyuan & Yang, Zhifeng & Chen, Bin & Zhang, Lixiao, 2013. "Modelling a thermodynamic-based comparative framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating economic and ecological losses into emergy analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 280-287.
    5. Chuang-lin Fang & Chao Bao & Jin-chuan Huang, 2007. "Management Implications to Water Resources Constraint Force on Socio-economic System in Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of the Hexi Corridor, NW China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1613-1633, September.
    6. Horridge, Mark & Madden, John & Wittwer, Glyn, 2005. "The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-308, April.
    7. Yong Wang & Hong-lang Xiao & Rui-fang Wang, 2009. "Water Scarcity and Water Use in Economic Systems in Zhangye City, Northwestern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2655-2668, October.
    8. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    9. Xinshen Diao & Ariel Dinar & Terry Roe & Yacov Tsur, 2008. "A general equilibrium analysis of conjunctive ground and surface water use with an application to Morocco," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 117-135, March.
    10. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 305-323, May.
    11. Hoekstra, Rutger & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2006. "Constructing physical input-output tables for environmental modeling and accounting: Framework and illustrations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 375-393, September.
    12. Noelwah R. Netusil & Thomas R. Harris & Chang K. Seung & Jeffrey E. Englin, 2000. "Impacts of water reallocation: A combined computable general equilibrium and recreation demand model approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(4), pages 473-487.
    13. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Doukkali, Rachid, 2005. "Economy-wide gains from decentralized water allocation in a spatially heterogenous agricultural economy," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 249-269, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruihuan Li & Ping Guo & Jianbing Li, 2018. "Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1827-1847, March.
    2. Li, Xing & Zhang, Qian & Liu, Yu & Song, Jia & Wu, Feng, 2018. "Modeling social–economic water cycling and the water–land nexus: A framework and an application," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 390(C), pages 40-50.
    3. Guofeng Wang & Nan Lin & Xiaoxue Zhou & Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng, 2018. "Three-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis of Agricultural Water Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Runqi Lun & Wei Liu & Guojing Li & Qiyou Luo, 2024. "Does Digital Agricultural Technology Extension Service Enhance Sustainable Food Production? Evidence from Maize Farmers in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    5. Lanhua Luo & Qing Zhou & Hong S. He & Liangxia Duan & Gaoling Zhang & Hongxia Xie, 2020. "Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Susana Torres López & Maria de los Angeles Barrionuevo & Beatriz Rodríguez-Labajos, 2023. "A new operational approach for understanding water-related interactions to achieve water sustainability in growing cities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 122-137, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Na Li & Xiaojun Wang & Minjun Shi & Hong Yang, 2015. "Economic Impacts of Total Water Use Control in the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China—An Integrated CGE-BEM Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Mohamed A. Chemingui & Chokri Thabet, 2016. "Economy-Wide Analysis of Alternative Water Management Policies: A Comparative Analysis for Morocco and Tunisia," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Feng Wu & Jinyan Zhan & Qian Zhang & Zhongxiao Sun & Zhan Wang, 2014. "Evaluating Impacts of Industrial Transformation on Water Consumption in the Heihe River Basin of Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Li, Xing & Zhang, Qian & Liu, Yu & Song, Jia & Wu, Feng, 2018. "Modeling social–economic water cycling and the water–land nexus: A framework and an application," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 390(C), pages 40-50.
    5. Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Economy-wide implications of direct and indirect policy interventions in the water sector: lessons from recent work and future research needs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6068, The World Bank.
    6. Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2015. "The Conjunctive Use of Irrigation Water Over Time in Morocco: Strengthening Ecosystems and Development Linkages," Miscellaneous Publications 232878, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    7. Magdalena ZACHLOD-JELEC & Piotr KARP, 2010. "Responses of the Polish Economy to Demand and Supply Shocks under Alternative Fiscal Rules," EcoMod2010 259600174, EcoMod.
    8. Ouraich, Ismail & Tyner, Wallace E., 2011. "A CGE Analysis of Economy-wide Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Morocco," 2011 Conference: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, December 6-7, 2011, Rabat, Morocco 188121, Moroccan Association of Agricultural Economics (AMAEco).
    9. Rashid Hassan & James Thurlow, 2011. "Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(2), pages 235-247, March.
    10. Chokri Thabet, 2014. "Water Policy and Poverty Reduction in Rural Area: A Comparative Economy Wide Analysis for Morocco and Tunisia," Working Papers 860, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2014.
    11. Ouraich, Ismail & Tyner, Wallace E., 2014. "Climate change impacts on Moroccan agriculture and the whole economy: An analysis of the impacts of the Plan Maroc Vert in Morocco," WIDER Working Paper Series 083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2011. "Climate Change and Virtual Water Trade in the Mediterranean," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 3, September.
    13. Chao Bao & Dongmei He, 2019. "Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Ismail Ouraich & Wallace E. Tyner, 2014. "Climate Change Impacts on Moroccan Agriculture and the Whole Economy: An Analysis of the Impacts of the Plan Maroc Vert in Morocco," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Elizabeth L. Roos & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Jan H. van Heerden & Nicholas Kilimani, 2016. "Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda," Working Papers 616, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    16. Cakmak, Erol H. & Dudu, Hasan & Saracoglu, Sirin & Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry & Tsur, Yacov, 2008. "Macro-Micro Feedback Links Of Irrigation Water Management In Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4781, The World Bank.
    17. Ouraich, Ismail & Tyner, Wallace E., 2014. "Morocco's unique situation in the climate change arena: An analysis of climate forecasts and their link to agriculture," WIDER Working Paper Series 088, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Roberto Ponce & Francesco Bosello & Carlo Giupponi, 2012. "Integrating Water Resources into Computable General Equilibrium Models - A Survey," Working Papers 2012.57, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Jason F. L. Koopman & Onno Kuik & Richard S. J. Tol & Roy Brouwer, 2017. "The potential of water markets to allocate water between industry, agriculture, and public water utilities as an adaptation mechanism to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 325-347, February.
    20. Chao Bao & Dongmei He, 2015. "The Causal Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Water Use Change in Provincial China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:318:y:2015:i:c:p:254-264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.