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A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series

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  • Yixuan Wang
  • Jianzhu Li
  • Ping Feng
  • Rong Hu

Abstract

In a rapidly changing environment, a greater concern about the establishment and improvement of drought indices is expected. The main goal of this study is to develop and apply a time-dependent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIt) that takes account of the possible non-stationary behaviors in precipitation records. Summer precipitation observations (1959 ~ 2011) from 21 raingauge stations in the Luanhe River basin are fitted with non-stationary Gamma distributions respectively by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). The temporal variability of the distribution’s parameter (related to the mean) is flexibly described by an optimized polynomial function. Based on the non-stationary distribution, the SPIt is calculated and then employed to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of summer drought in the basin. Results of the non-stationary modeling indicate an overall decreasing trend in the summer precipitation during 1959 ~ 2011, and especially a significant decrease in the period of 2000 to 2011. The SPIt is found to be more robust and reliable compared with the traditional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Moreover, remarkable difference is observed between the historical drought assessments of SPIt and SPI in the Luanhe River basin, implying that the non-stationarity of hydrological time series cannot be ignored in drought analyses and forecasts. The proposed SPIt method can be a feasible alternative for drought monitoring under non-stationary conditions, intended to provide a valuable reference for further studies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:15:p:5631-5647
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1138-0
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    2. Felício Cassalho & Samuel Beskow & Carlos Rogério Mello & Maíra Martim Moura & Laura Kerstner & Leo Fernandes Ávila, 2018. "At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis Coupled with Multiparameter Probability Distributions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 285-300, January.
    3. Neda Khanmohammadi & Hossein Rezaie & Majid Montaseri & Javad Behmanesh, 2017. "The Effect of Temperature Adjustment on Reference Evapotranspiration and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 5001-5017, December.
    4. Ana Paulo & Diogo Martins & Luís Santos Pereira, 2016. "Influence of Precipitation Changes on the SPI and Related Drought Severity. An Analysis Using Long-Term Data Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5737-5757, December.
    5. Soumyashree Dixit & K. V. Jayakumar, 2022. "A Non-stationary and Probabilistic Approach for Drought Characterization Using Trivariate and Pairwise Copula Construction (PCC) Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1217-1236, March.
    6. Javad Bazrafshan & Majid Cheraghalizadeh & Kokab Shahgholian, 2022. "Development of a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3523-3543, August.
    7. Zachary H. Hoylman & R. Kyle Bocinsky & Kelsey G. Jencso, 2022. "Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    9. Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2020. "Effects of Gamma-Distribution Variations on SPI-Based Stationary and Nonstationary Drought Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2081-2095, April.
    10. Huantian Xie & Dingfang Li & Lihua Xiong, 2016. "Exploring the Regional Variance using ARMA-GARCH Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3507-3518, August.
    11. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.
    12. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

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