IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v29y2015i13p4767-4785.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model

Author

Listed:
  • Bhumika Uniyal
  • Madan Jha
  • Arbind Verma

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, which affects the entire earth system in terms of negative impacts on food production, water supply, health, livelihood, energy, etc. The intent of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the water balance components of a data-starved Upper Baitarani River basin of Eastern India using ArcSWAT model. The ArcSWAT model was calibrated using SUFI-2 technique. The daily observed streamflow data from 1998 to 2003 were employed for calibration and those for 2004–2005 for validation. The calibration results were found to be satisfactory with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.88 and 9.70 m 3 /s for the daily time step, respectively. Also, the model was validated successfully for simulating daily streamflow (NSE = 0.80 and MAE = 10.33 m 3 /s). The calibrated and validated model was then used to evaluate basin response to the anticipated climate changes by the end of the 21st century. Twelve independent as well as twenty eight combined area-specific climatic scenarios were considered in this study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the basin. The analysis of model results for the 12 Independent Climatic Scenarios indicated a reduction in the surface runoff ranging from 2.5 to 11 % by changing the temperature from 1 to 5 °C, whereas the increase in rainfall by 2.5 to 15 % suggested an increase in surface runoff by 6.67 to 43.42 % from the baseline condition. In case of 28 Combined Scenarios compared to the baseline condition, the changes in surface runoff would vary from −4.55 to 37.53 %, the groundwater recharge would change from −8.7 to 23.15 % and the evapotranspiration would increase from 4.05 to 11.88 %. It is concluded that future changes in the climatic condition by the end of the 21st century are most likely to produce significant impacts on the streamflow in the study area. The findings of this study and those of follow-up studies in this direction will be useful for guiding suitable adaptation measures for sustainable water management in the basin in the face of impending climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Bhumika Uniyal & Madan Jha & Arbind Verma, 2015. "Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4767-4785, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4767-4785
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1089-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-015-1089-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-015-1089-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajiv Chaturvedi & Ranjith Gopalakrishnan & Mathangi Jayaraman & Govindasamy Bala & N. Joshi & Raman Sukumar & N. Ravindranath, 2011. "Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 119-142, February.
    2. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    3. Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl & F. Hugo Lambert & Nathan P. Gillett & Susan Solomon & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa, 2007. "Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7152), pages 461-465, July.
    4. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    5. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    6. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Green and Blue Water over Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2407-2427, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Natel Moura & Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto & Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos & Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá, 2020. "Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in a Well-preserved Upland Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2255-2267, June.
    2. Ravish K. Rathee & Sudipta K. Mishra, 2024. "Climate change impact assessment on the water resources of the Upper Yamuna River Basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18477-18498, July.
    3. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.
    4. Babak Farjad & Anil Gupta & Danielle J. Marceau, 2016. "Annual and Seasonal Variations of Hydrological Processes Under Climate Change Scenarios in Two Sub-Catchments of a Complex Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2851-2865, June.
    5. Pipas Kumar & Varun Joshi, 2019. "Modelling Surface Run-off Response Using Hydrological Model Swat in The Upper Watershed of River Subarnarekha, India," Earth Sciences Malaysia (ESMY), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 09-15, October.
    6. Abdennabi Alitane & Ali Essahlaoui & Ann Van Griensven & Estifanos Addisu Yimer & Narjisse Essahlaoui & Meriame Mohajane & Celray James Chawanda & Anton Van Rompaey, 2022. "Towards a Decision-Making Approach of Sustainable Water Resources Management Based on Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Central Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    7. Kashish Sadhwani & T. I. Eldho, 2023. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Water Balance to Climate Change at River Basin Scale in Humid Tropics: Implications for a Sustainable Water Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Junmin Wang & Lei Fu & Cheng Lu & Shiwu Wang & Yongshu Zhu & Zeqi Xu & Zihan Gui, 2024. "Study on River Protection and Improvement Based on a Comprehensive Statistical Model in a Coastal Plain River Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    10. Chen, Dengshuai & Li, Jing & Yang, Xiaonan & Zhou, Zixiang & Pan, Yuqi & Li, Manchun, 2020. "Quantifying water provision service supply, demand and spatial flow for land use optimization: A case study in the YanHe watershed," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han & Ping Feng & Yongjie Wang, 2022. "Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1305-1337, January.
    12. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    13. Junyu Qi & Sheng Li & Qiang Li & Zisheng Xing & Charles P.-A. Bourque & Fan-Rui Meng, 2016. "Assessing an Enhanced Version of SWAT on Water Quantity and Quality Simulation in Regions with Seasonal Snow Cover," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5021-5037, November.
    14. Binbin Zhang & Narayan Kumar Shrestha & Prasad Daggupati & Ramesh Rudra & Rituraj Shukla & Baljeet Kaur & Jun Hou, 2018. "Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, August.
    15. Jinping Zhang & Honglin Xiao & Hongyuan Fang, 2022. "Component-based Reconstruction Prediction of Runoff at Multi-time Scales in the Source Area of the Yellow River Based on the ARMA Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 433-448, January.
    16. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    17. Swatantra Kumar Dubey & JungJin Kim & Younggu Her & Devesh Sharma & Hanseok Jeong, 2023. "Hydroclimatic Impact Assessment Using the SWAT Model in India—State of the Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-40, November.
    18. Junyu Qi & Sheng Li & Qi Yang & Zisheng Xing & Fan-Rui Meng, 2017. "SWAT Setup with Long-Term Detailed Landuse and Management Records and Modification for a Micro-Watershed Influenced by Freeze-Thaw Cycles," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3953-3974, September.
    19. Maryam Abbaszadeh & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Rasool Mahdavi & Elham Rafiei Sardooi & Sajad Jamshidi, 2023. "Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4177-4194, August.
    20. Sri Lakshmi Sesha Vani Jayanthi & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2022. "Prediction of Future Lake Water Availability Using SWAT and Support Vector Regression (SVR)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan, 2015. "Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis for Annual Flood Peak Series, Adopting Climate Indices and Check Dam Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5533-5550, December.
    2. Deg-Hyo Bae & Toshio Koike & Jehangir Awan & Moon-Hwan Lee & Kyung-Hwan Sohn, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5377-5393, November.
    3. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.
    4. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    5. Kelly Sanders & Carey King & Ashlynn Stillwell & Michael Webber, 2013. "Clean energy and water: assessment of Mexico for improved water services and renewable energy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
    6. Yuan Quan & Chenxing Wang & Yan Yan & Gang Wu & Hongxun Zhang, 2016. "Impact of Inter‐Basin Water Transfer Projects on Regional Ecological Security from a Telecoupling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, February.
    7. Kerstin Jantke & Martina J. Hartmann & Livia Rasche & Benjamin Blanz & Uwe A. Schneider, 2020. "Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Knowledge and Positions of German Farmers," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-13, April.
    8. Zafar Hussain & Zongmin Wang & Jiaxue Wang & Haibo Yang & Muhammad Arfan & Daniyal Hassan & Wusen Wang & Muhammad Imran Azam & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative Appraisal of Classical and Holistic Water Scarcity Indicators," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 931-950, February.
    9. Yiting Shao & Xiaohui Zhai & Xingmin Mu & Sen Zheng & Dandan Shen & Jinglin Qian, 2024. "An Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alterations in the Danjiang River Watershed for Sustainable Water Resource Management by Different Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-23, September.
    10. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    11. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    12. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali & Mohamad Kassem, 2020. "Greenhouse Gases: A Review of Losses and Benefits," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 403-418.
    13. Gou, Qiqi & Zhu, Yonghua & Horton, Robert & Lü, Haishen & Wang, Zhenlong & Su, Jianbin & Cui, Chenyun & Zhang, Haoqiang & Wang, Xiaoyi & Zheng, Jingyao & Yuan, Fei, 2020. "Effect of climate change on the contribution of groundwater to the root zone of winter wheat in the Huaibei Plain of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    14. Subbarao Pichuka & Rajib Maity, 2020. "Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Future through Time-Invariant and Time-Varying Downscaling Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1809-1826, March.
    15. Rong Zhang & Celso Santos & Madalena Moreira & Paula Freire & João Corte-Real, 2013. "Automatic Calibration of the SHETRAN Hydrological Modelling System Using MSCE," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4053-4068, September.
    16. Parajuli, P.B. & Jayakody, P. & Sassenrath, G.F. & Ouyang, Y., 2016. "Assessing the impacts of climate change and tillage practices on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from the Mississippi River Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 112-124.
    17. K. Jenkins, 2013. "Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1967-1986, December.
    18. Xizhi Nong & Dongguo Shao & Yi Xiao & Hua Zhong, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Characterization Analysis and Water Quality Assessment of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Changbin Li & Jiaguo Qi & Shuaibing Wang & Linshan Yang & Wenjin Yang & Songbing Zou & Gaofeng Zhu & Wenyan Li, 2014. "A Holistic System Approach to Understanding Underground Water Dynamics in the Loess Tableland: A Case Study of the Dongzhi Loess Tableland in Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2937-2951, August.
    20. Zhe Cheng & Yuntong Zhao & Tao Song & Le Cheng & Wenbin Wang, 2023. "White Elephant or Golden Goose? An Assessment of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project from the Perspective of Regional Water Use Efficiency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 819-834, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4767-4785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.