IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v28y2014i12p3905-3920.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Pao-Shan Yu
  • Tao-Chang Yang
  • Chen-Min Kuo
  • Yi-Tai Wang

Abstract

This study proposed a stochastic approach to forecast water-shortage probabilities for the coming three months in central Taiwan. Monte Carlo method is used to repeat random sampling from the seasonal weather outlook. For each Monte Carlo trial, the monthly rainfalls and monthly mean temperatures for one to three months ahead in eleven upstream catchments of central Taiwan can be obtained. Further, the disaggregation model is used to convert the monthly values into daily rainfall and temperature series. The HBV-based hydrological model uses the daily series to simulate daily inflows for each catchment as the input of system dynamic model for simulating the water budget of water resources system. After all the Monte Carlo trails, the monthly water-shortage probabilities for one to three months ahead can be calculated. The results reveal that the proposed approach can reasonably forecast the water-shortage conditions for one to three months ahead, which are beneficial for regional drought warning and decision support of drought-disaster prevention. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:12:p:3905-3920
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0717-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-014-0717-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-014-0717-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xi Chen & Tao Yang & Xiaoyan Wang & Chong-Yu Xu & Zhongbo Yu, 2013. "Uncertainty Intercomparison of Different Hydrological Models in Simulating Extreme Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1393-1409, March.
    2. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
    3. David Robertson & Q. Wang, 2013. "Seasonal Forecasts of Unregulated Inflows into the Murray River, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2747-2769, June.
    4. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Jiu-fu Liu & Guo-qing Wang & Rui-min He & Amgad Elmahdi & Sondoss Elsawah, 2011. "Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 331-351, April.
    5. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    6. Hui Wang & Junguo Liu, 2013. "Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1427-1438, March.
    7. Hamideh Hosseini Safa & Saeed Morid & Mahnoush Moghaddasi, 2012. "Incorporating Economy and Long-term Inflow Forecasting Uncertainty into Decision-making for Agricultural Water Allocation during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2267-2281, June.
    8. K. Engeland & H. Hisdal, 2009. "A Comparison of Low Flow Estimates in Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Regression and the HBV-Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2567-2586, September.
    9. Guolei Tang & Huicheng Zhou & Ningning Li & Feng Wang & Yajun Wang & Deping Jian, 2010. "Value of Medium-range Precipitation Forecasts in Inflow Prediction and Hydropower Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2721-2742, September.
    10. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    11. Alexandre Evsukoff & Beatriz Lima & Nelson Ebecken, 2011. "Long-Term Runoff Modeling Using Rainfall Forecasts with Application to the Iguaçu River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 963-985, February.
    12. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel, 2011. "Application of ANN-Based Streamflow Forecasting Model for Agricultural Water Management in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(6), pages 1759-1773, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    2. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Lu Chen & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Changqing Meng & Na Sun, 2019. "Upper and Lower Bound Interval Forecasting Methodology Based on Ideal Boundary and Multiple Linear Regression Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 1203-1215, February.
    3. Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2021. "Analytical Water Shortage Probabilities and Distributions of Various Lead Times for a Water Supply Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3809-3825, September.
    4. Keivan Karimlou & Nemat Hassani & Abdollah Rashidi Mehrabadi & Mohammad Reza Nazari, 2020. "Developing a Model for Decision-Makers in Dynamic Modeling of Urban Water System Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 481-499, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    2. Lu, Di & Wang, Bende & Wang, Yaodong & Zhou, Huicheng & Liang, Qiuhua & Peng, Yong & Roskilly, Tony, 2015. "Optimal operation of cascade hydropower stations using hydrogen as storage medium," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 56-63.
    3. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Shahid Shamsuddin & He Rui-min & Xia Xing-hui & Mou Xin-li, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    5. Hadush Meresa & Yongqiang Zhang, 2021. "Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1775-1795, April.
    6. M. Mustafa & R. Rezaur & S. Saiedi & M. Isa, 2012. "River Suspended Sediment Prediction Using Various Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Training Algorithms—A Case Study in Malaysia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1879-1897, May.
    7. Lu Zhuo & Dawei Han & Qiang Dai & Tanvir Islam & Prashant Srivastava, 2015. "Appraisal of NLDAS-2 Multi-Model Simulated Soil Moistures for Hydrological Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3503-3517, August.
    8. Liang Liu & Cong Feng & Hongwei Zhang & Xuehua Zhang, 2015. "Game Analysis and Simulation of the River Basin Sustainable Development Strategy Integrating Water Emission Trading," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Abduraupov, Rustam & Akhmadjanova, Gulmira & Ibragimov, Abdulla & Bala, B.K. & Sidique, Shaufique F. & Makhmudov, Miraziz & Angelina, Kim, 2022. "Modeling of water management for cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Jesus R. Gastelum & Ganesh Krishnamurthy & Nemesciano Ochoa & Shane Sibbett & Margie Armstrong & Parag Kalaria, 2018. "The Use of System Dynamics Model to Enhance Integrated Resources Planning Implementation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2247-2260, May.
    11. Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Xuemin Wang & Lei Ye & Hao Wang, 2014. "Multi-Objective Parameter Calibration and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making: An Application to Conceptual Hydrological Model Calibration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 767-783, February.
    12. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.
    13. Yizhong Chen & Li He & Hongwei Lu & Jing Li & Lixia Ren, 2018. "Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3135-3153, July.
    14. Patricia Chica-Morales & Victor F. Muñoz & Antonio J. Domenech, 2021. "System Dynamics as Ex Ante Impact Assessment Tool in International Development Cooperation: Study Case of Urban Sustainability Policies in Darkhan, Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Xian’En Wang & Wei Zhan & Shuo Wang, 2020. "Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.
    16. Wang Zhang & Pan Liu & Xizhen Chen & Li Wang & Xueshan Ai & Maoyuan Feng & Dedi Liu & Yuanyuan Liu, 2016. "Optimal Operation of Multi-reservoir Systems Considering Time-lags of Flood Routing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 523-540, January.
    17. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Wang Jian-hua & He Rui-min & Amgad ElMahdi & Liu Jin-hua & Wang Xin-gong & David King & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2014. "Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 107-120, January.
    18. Taymoor Awchi, 2014. "River Discharges Forecasting In Northern Iraq Using Different ANN Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 801-814, February.
    19. Qiao-feng Tan & Guo-hua Fang & Xin Wen & Xiao-hui Lei & Xu Wang & Chao Wang & Yi Ji, 2020. "Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Hydropower Generation Operation Based on Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1589-1607, March.
    20. Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:12:p:3905-3920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.