IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v27y2013i5p1427-1438.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Wang
  • Junguo Liu

Abstract

Reservoir operation incorporating a naïve hedging strategy and operational inflow forecasting is studied in this paper. Gridded precipitation forecasts from climate model, ECHAM4.5, are used as potential predictors for reservoir inflow forecasting. In building a statistical predicting model, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the regression model. Performance evaluation indices, including water supply satisfaction ratio, environmental flow satisfaction ratio, end-of-month storage satisfaction ratio and flood prevention capacity index, are defined. Three scenarios where a naïve hedging operation rule under different set of reservoir inflow are investigated. These are evaluated for a water supply reservoir, Falls Lake Reservoir, at Neuse River in the southeast United State. Reservoir simulation with monthly average inflow serves as a benchmark. The utility of operational inflow forecasts is quantified by the improvements of performance indices. Results show that reservoir operation under perfect inflow forecasting has the highest values for most indices. Compared to climatology, operational inflow forecasts result in higher index values. Among all the performance indices, end-of-month storage satisfaction ratio is the most sensitive index to inflow information. Limitation of this study and further work is also discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Wang & Junguo Liu, 2013. "Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1427-1438, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:5:p:1427-1438
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0246-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-012-0246-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-012-0246-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
    2. Shih, Jhih-Shyang & ReVelle, Charles, 1995. "Water supply operations during drought: A discrete hedging rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 163-175, April.
    3. J. Shiau & H. Lee, 2005. "Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(2), pages 111-132, April.
    4. K. Srinivasan & M. Philipose, 1998. "Effect of Hedging on Over-Year Reservoir Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(2), pages 95-120, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    2. Han-Chung Yang & Jian-Ping Suen & Shih-Kai Chou, 2016. "Estimating the Ungauged Natural Flow Regimes for Environmental Flow Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4571-4584, October.
    3. Gökçen Uysal & Aynur Şensoy & A. Şorman & Türker Akgün & Tolga Gezgin, 2016. "Basin/Reservoir System Integration for Real Time Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1653-1668, March.
    4. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.
    5. Rui Hui & Jay Lund & Jianshi Zhao & Tongtiegang Zhao, 2016. "Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5113-5129, November.
    6. S. Ashbolt & S. Maheepala & B. Perera, 2014. "A Framework for Short-term Operational Planning for Water Grids," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2367-2380, June.
    7. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hsu-Hui Wen & I-Wen Su, 2021. "Comparing Optimal Hedging Policies Incorporating Past Operation Information and Future Hydrologic Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2196, May.
    8. Gökçen Uysal & Aynur Şensoy & A. Arda Şorman & Türker Akgün & Tolga Gezgin, 2016. "Basin/Reservoir System Integration for Real Time Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1653-1668, March.
    9. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alireza Dariane & Farzane Karami, 2014. "Deriving Hedging Rules of Multi-Reservoir System by Online Evolving Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3651-3665, September.
    2. Rui Hui & Jay Lund & Jianshi Zhao & Tongtiegang Zhao, 2016. "Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5113-5129, November.
    3. Yong Peng & Jinggang Chu & Anbang Peng & Huicheng Zhou, 2015. "Optimization Operation Model Coupled with Improving Water-Transfer Rules and Hedging Rules for Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3787-3806, August.
    4. Youngkyu Jin & Sangho Lee, 2019. "Comparative Effectiveness of Reservoir Operation Applying Hedging Rules Based on Available Water and Beginning Storage to Cope with Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1897-1911, March.
    5. J. Shiau & H. Lee, 2005. "Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(2), pages 111-132, April.
    6. Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim & Shin-Uk Kang, 2019. "Time-Varying Discrete Hedging Rules for Drought Contingency Plan Considering Long-Range Dependency in Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2791-2807, June.
    7. J. Shiau, 2003. "Water Release Policy Effects on the Shortage Characteristics for the Shihmen Reservoir System during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(6), pages 463-480, December.
    8. Xuning Guo & Tiesong Hu & Conglin Wu & Tao Zhang & Yibing Lv, 2013. "Multi-Objective Optimization of the Proposed Multi-Reservoir Operating Policy Using Improved NSPSO," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2137-2153, May.
    9. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.
    10. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Yen-Ning Hung & Huei-Er Sie, 2018. "Effects of Hedging Factors and Fuzziness on Shortage Characteristics During Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1913-1929, March.
    11. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    12. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
    13. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hsu-Hui Wen & I-Wen Su, 2021. "Comparing Optimal Hedging Policies Incorporating Past Operation Information and Future Hydrologic Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2196, May.
    14. Gi Joo Kim & Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim, 2022. "Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3575-3590, August.
    15. A. J. Adeloye & B.-S. Soundharajan & C. S. P. Ojha & R. Remesan, 2016. "Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 445-470, January.
    16. A. Adeloye & B.-S. Soundharajan & C. Ojha & R. Remesan, 2016. "Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 445-470, January.
    17. Iman Ahmadianfar & Reza Zamani, 2020. "Assessment of the hedging policy on reservoir operation for future drought conditions under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 253-268, March.
    18. O. Haddad & M. Tabari & E. Fallah-Mehdipour & M. Mariño, 2013. "Groundwater Model Calibration by Meta-Heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2515-2529, May.
    19. Qiang Wang & Huicheng Zhou & Guohua Liang & Haijun Xu, 2015. "Optimal Operation of Bidirectional Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3037-3054, July.
    20. Javad Jamshidi & Mojtaba Shourian, 2019. "Hedging Rules-Based Optimal Reservoir Operation Using Bat Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4525-4538, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:5:p:1427-1438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.