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Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts

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  • Hui Wang
  • Junguo Liu

Abstract

Reservoir operation incorporating a naïve hedging strategy and operational inflow forecasting is studied in this paper. Gridded precipitation forecasts from climate model, ECHAM4.5, are used as potential predictors for reservoir inflow forecasting. In building a statistical predicting model, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the regression model. Performance evaluation indices, including water supply satisfaction ratio, environmental flow satisfaction ratio, end-of-month storage satisfaction ratio and flood prevention capacity index, are defined. Three scenarios where a naïve hedging operation rule under different set of reservoir inflow are investigated. These are evaluated for a water supply reservoir, Falls Lake Reservoir, at Neuse River in the southeast United State. Reservoir simulation with monthly average inflow serves as a benchmark. The utility of operational inflow forecasts is quantified by the improvements of performance indices. Results show that reservoir operation under perfect inflow forecasting has the highest values for most indices. Compared to climatology, operational inflow forecasts result in higher index values. Among all the performance indices, end-of-month storage satisfaction ratio is the most sensitive index to inflow information. Limitation of this study and further work is also discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Wang & Junguo Liu, 2013. "Reservoir Operation Incorporating Hedging Rules and Operational Inflow Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1427-1438, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:5:p:1427-1438
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0246-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. Neelakantan & N. Pundarikanthan, 1999. "Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(6), pages 409-426, December.
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    3. J. Shiau & H. Lee, 2005. "Derivation of Optimal Hedging Rules for a Water-supply Reservoir through Compromise Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(2), pages 111-132, April.
    4. K. Srinivasan & M. Philipose, 1998. "Effect of Hedging on Over-Year Reservoir Performance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(2), pages 95-120, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rui Hui & Jay Lund & Jianshi Zhao & Tongtiegang Zhao, 2016. "Optimal Pre-storm Flood Hedging Releases for a Single Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5113-5129, November.
    2. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    3. S. Ashbolt & S. Maheepala & B. Perera, 2014. "A Framework for Short-term Operational Planning for Water Grids," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2367-2380, June.
    4. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hsu-Hui Wen & I-Wen Su, 2021. "Comparing Optimal Hedging Policies Incorporating Past Operation Information and Future Hydrologic Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2196, May.
    5. Han-Chung Yang & Jian-Ping Suen & Shih-Kai Chou, 2016. "Estimating the Ungauged Natural Flow Regimes for Environmental Flow Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4571-4584, October.
    6. Gökçen Uysal & Aynur Şensoy & A. Arda Şorman & Türker Akgün & Tolga Gezgin, 2016. "Basin/Reservoir System Integration for Real Time Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1653-1668, March.
    7. Gökçen Uysal & Aynur Şensoy & A. Şorman & Türker Akgün & Tolga Gezgin, 2016. "Basin/Reservoir System Integration for Real Time Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1653-1668, March.
    8. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.
    9. Xiang Zeng & Tiesong Hu & Xuning Guo & Xinjie Li, 2014. "Water Transfer Triggering Mechanism for Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer-Supply Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1293-1308, March.

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