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Seasonal Forecasts of Unregulated Inflows into the Murray River, Australia

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  • David Robertson
  • Q. Wang

Abstract

Water users along the Murray River, Australia, have traditionally used climatology forecasts of river flows for intra-annual planning of water use and trading. In this paper, we develop and assess the performance of statistical models for forecasting three-month inflow totals for the Murray River. Predictors are selected to represent the influence of initial catchment conditions and future climate on streamflows. These predictors vary with season and location, but are dominated by antecedent streamflows and indices describing the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. For all seasons, the forecasts are skilful with respect to climatology forecasts, and the forecast probability distributions appear to be reliable. Forecast skill is highest for forecasts made between September and December. The forecasts appear to be robust with respect to event size and time, except for the austral autumn seasons for which none of the predictors can forecast the decline in seasonal rainfall over the most recent decade. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • David Robertson & Q. Wang, 2013. "Seasonal Forecasts of Unregulated Inflows into the Murray River, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2747-2769, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:8:p:2747-2769
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0313-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dushmanta Dutta & Wendy Welsh & Jai Vaze & Shaun Kim & David Nicholls, 2012. "A Comparative Evaluation of Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis and Rainfall-Runoff Models in eWater Source," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(15), pages 4397-4415, December.
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    4. Matthew Berrisford & Robert Argent & Hector Malano, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of Unutilised Irrigation Orders in the Central River Murray Area," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(2), pages 193-217, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vidayshree Misir & D. Arya & A. Murumkar, 2013. "Impact of ENSO on River Flows in Guyana," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4611-4621, October.
    2. Alex Avilés & Rolando Célleri & Javier Paredes & Abel Solera, 2015. "Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1949-1963, April.
    3. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.

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