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Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City

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  • Xian’En Wang

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
    Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130021, China
    Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Wei Zhan

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Shuo Wang

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
    Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130021, China
    Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

Abstract

Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a “general” carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve “general” or “good” carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme’s realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Xian’En Wang & Wei Zhan & Shuo Wang, 2020. "Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:16:p:5860-:d:398260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
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    3. Zhang, Z. & Lu, W.X. & Zhao, Y. & Song, W.B., 2014. "Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 9-21.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng Zhan & Mingjing Guo & Jinhua Cheng & Hongxia Peng, 2022. "Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Support Pressure Coupling Mechanism: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Sheng Ye & Chao Wei & Zhanqi Wang & Han Wang & Ji Chai, 2021. "Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity, Social Development and Their Decoupling Relationship: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-23, November.

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