IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i16p5860-d398260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City

Author

Listed:
  • Xian’En Wang

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
    Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130021, China
    Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Wei Zhan

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

  • Shuo Wang

    (School of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
    Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130021, China
    Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China)

Abstract

Water environment carrying capacity (WECC) is an effective indicator that can help resolve the contradiction between social and economic development and water environment pollution. Considering the complexity of the water environment and socioeconomic systems in Northeast China, this study establishes an evaluation index system and a system dynamics (SD) model of WECC in Fushun City, Liaoning, China, through the combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and SD. In consideration of the uncertainty of the future development of society, the Monte Carlo and scenario analysis methods are used to simulate the WECC of Fushun City. Results show that if the current social development mode is maintained, then the WECC in Fushun will have a slow improvement in the future, and a “general” carrying state with a WECC index of 0.566 in 2025 will be developed. Moreover, focusing on economic development (Scheme 1 with a WECC index of [0.22, 0.45] in 2025) or environmental protection (Scheme 2 with a WECC index of [0.48, 0.68] in 2025) cannot effectively improve the local water environment. Only by combining the two coordinated development modes (Scheme 3) can WECC be significantly improved and achieve “general” or “good” carrying state with a WECC index of [0.59, 0.79]. An important development of this study is that the probability of each scheme’s realization can be calculated after different schemes are formulated. In turn, the feasibility of the scheme will be evaluated after knowing the probability, so as to determine the path suitable for local development. This is of great significance for future urban planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Xian’En Wang & Wei Zhan & Shuo Wang, 2020. "Uncertain Water Environment Carrying Capacity Simulation Based on the Monte Carlo Method–System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Fushun City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:16:p:5860-:d:398260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/16/5860/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/16/5860/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ines Winz & Gary Brierley & Sam Trowsdale, 2009. "The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(7), pages 1301-1323, May.
    2. Li, Lu & Shi, Zhi-Hua & Yin, Wei & Zhu, Dun & Ng, Sai Leung & Cai, Chong-Fa & Lei, A-Lin, 2009. "A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) approach to eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for the danjiangkou reservoir area, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3439-3447.
    3. Zhang, Z. & Lu, W.X. & Zhao, Y. & Song, W.B., 2014. "Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 9-21.
    4. Kennedy, Maureen C., 2019. "Experimental design principles to choose the number of Monte Carlo replicates for stochastic ecological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 11-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng Zhan & Mingjing Guo & Jinhua Cheng & Hongxia Peng, 2022. "Evaluation of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Based on Support Pressure Coupling Mechanism: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Sheng Ye & Chao Wei & Zhanqi Wang & Han Wang & Ji Chai, 2021. "Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity, Social Development and Their Decoupling Relationship: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-23, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guifang Yang & Zhenghong Chen, 2015. "RS-based fuzzy multiattribute assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in the source area of the Lishui River of northwest Hunan Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1145-1161, September.
    2. Liang Liu & Cong Feng & Hongwei Zhang & Xuehua Zhang, 2015. "Game Analysis and Simulation of the River Basin Sustainable Development Strategy Integrating Water Emission Trading," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Edyta Kiedrzyńska & Marcin Kiedrzyński & Maciej Zalewski, 2015. "Sustainable floodplain management for flood prevention and water quality improvement," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 955-977, March.
    4. Abduraupov, Rustam & Akhmadjanova, Gulmira & Ibragimov, Abdulla & Bala, B.K. & Sidique, Shaufique F. & Makhmudov, Miraziz & Angelina, Kim, 2022. "Modeling of water management for cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    5. Jesus R. Gastelum & Ganesh Krishnamurthy & Nemesciano Ochoa & Shane Sibbett & Margie Armstrong & Parag Kalaria, 2018. "The Use of System Dynamics Model to Enhance Integrated Resources Planning Implementation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2247-2260, May.
    6. Marco Franchini & Ernesto Ventaglio & Alessandra Bonoli, 2011. "A Procedure for Evaluating the Compatibility of Surface Water Resources with Environmental and Human Requirements," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3613-3634, November.
    7. Mehri Abdi-Dehkordi & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Abdolrahim Salavitabar & Erfan Goharian, 2021. "Developing a sustainability assessment framework for integrated management of water resources systems using distributed zoning and system dynamics approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 16246-16282, November.
    8. Mohsen Mostafa & Nishtman Hatami & Kambiz Espahbodi & Farhad Asadi, 2022. "Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) applied to evaluating the forest management approaches," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(7), pages 263-276.
    9. Shifeng Fang & Lida Xu & Yunqiang Zhu & Yongqiang Liu & Zhihui Liu & Huan Pei & Jianwu Yan & Huifang Zhang, 2015. "An integrated information system for snowmelt flood early-warning based on internet of things," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 321-335, April.
    10. Angela Dikou, 2024. "Competence in Unsustainability Resolution—A New Paradigm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Tsai, Wen-Ping & Cheng, Chung-Lien & Uen, Tinn-Shuan & Zhou, Yanlai & Chang, Fi-John, 2019. "Drought mitigation under urbanization through an intelligent water allocation system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 87-96.
    12. Patricia Chica-Morales & Victor F. Muñoz & Antonio J. Domenech, 2021. "System Dynamics as Ex Ante Impact Assessment Tool in International Development Cooperation: Study Case of Urban Sustainability Policies in Darkhan, Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    13. Yue Zhang & Yue Chang & Kanhua Yu & Liyuan Zhang & Xuxiang Li, 2021. "Difference Analysis of Ecological Vulnerability and Zoning Changes of National Energy and Chemical Bases Using FAHP Method," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-14, June.
    14. Wang Xiao-jun & Zhang Jian-yun & Wang Jian-hua & He Rui-min & Amgad ElMahdi & Liu Jin-hua & Wang Xin-gong & David King & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2014. "Climate change and water resources management in Tuwei river basin of Northwest China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 107-120, January.
    15. Langarudi, Saeed P. & Maxwell, Connie M. & Bai, Yining & Hanson, Austin & Fernald, Alexander, 2019. "Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-45.
    16. Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    17. Gema Carmona & Consuelo Varela-Ortega & John Bromley, 2011. "The Use of Participatory Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks and Agro-Economic Models for Groundwater Management in Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1509-1524, March.
    18. Miao Yu & Dong Liu & Jean Dieu Bazimenyera, 2013. "Diagnostic Complexity of Regional Groundwater Resources System Based on time series fractal dimension and Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 1897-1911, May.
    19. Qing Gu & Ke Wang & Jiadan Li & Ligang Ma & Jinsong Deng & Kefeng Zheng & Xiaobin Zhang & Li Sheng, 2015. "Spatio-Temporal Trends and Identification of Correlated Variables with Water Quality for Drinking-Water Reservoirs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Chao Bao & Dongmei He, 2019. "Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-19, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:16:p:5860-:d:398260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.