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System Dynamics as Ex Ante Impact Assessment Tool in International Development Cooperation: Study Case of Urban Sustainability Policies in Darkhan, Mongolia

Author

Listed:
  • Patricia Chica-Morales

    (Doctoral Program in Economics and Business, University of Malaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

  • Victor F. Muñoz

    (System Engineering and Automation, University of Málaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

  • Antonio J. Domenech

    (East Asian Studies Department, University of Málaga, 29071 Malaga, Spain)

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a trend of increasing criticism towards official development assistance (ODA) and the optimization of ODA policies, in a world of growing inequality between the Global North and Global South. To contribute to efficient ODA planning, this article proposes to innovatively apply system dynamics as an optimal tool for ex ante impact assessment. The study case is located in the slums of Darkhan (Mongolia), whose citizens and environment suffer the consequences of poor urban planning and lack of municipal solid waste management (MSWM). In this context, the present research proposes a policy of education and infrastructure as key factors for the improvement of MSWM in the context of an international cooperation plan, carried out by the Korean agency KOICA. To evaluate its impact and anticipate its effects, a tailor-made system dynamics model of a Darkhan district has been created, with the focus on the education process in order to simulate the different options of the proposed policies. The results show that education policy is particularly relevant for behavioral change, in terms of reducing waste burned and waste on the ground, and increasing composted and recycled waste. However, in this context, the policy is ineffective for improving the district’s water and air pollution situation. This article also offers discussions and recommendations to be applied to the international cooperation plan, which takes place in real life. It is expected that the described process of model construction and its results will contribute to the further use of system dynamics as a planning tool in the international cooperation field.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Chica-Morales & Victor F. Muñoz & Antonio J. Domenech, 2021. "System Dynamics as Ex Ante Impact Assessment Tool in International Development Cooperation: Study Case of Urban Sustainability Policies in Darkhan, Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:8:p:4595-:d:539973
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogieriakhi, Macson O. & Wang, Xingguo, 2024. "Do mandatory environmental policies really work? A case study of California's mandatory commercial recycling law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 915-930.

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