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Incorporating Economy and Long-term Inflow Forecasting Uncertainty into Decision-making for Agricultural Water Allocation during Droughts

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  • Hamideh Hosseini Safa
  • Saeed Morid
  • Mahnoush Moghaddasi

Abstract

Optimizing water allocations for the agricultural sector, the main water consumer, at the beginning of a period of drought is essential. However, long-term inflow forecasting, with its high uncertainty, is a necessary component of the allocation process. This paper presents a methodology that combines this uncertainty with economic factors to determine water allocation. The following models were developed and linked: optimization of agricultural water allocation under water scarcity, long-term flow forecast and quantification of forecast uncertainties. The approach coordinates economic values of water with system operational requirements. The Zayandeh Rud dam and irrigation system was selected to explore the methodology of this research. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Hamideh Hosseini Safa & Saeed Morid & Mahnoush Moghaddasi, 2012. "Incorporating Economy and Long-term Inflow Forecasting Uncertainty into Decision-making for Agricultural Water Allocation during Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2267-2281, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:8:p:2267-2281
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0015-3
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    1. Shangguan, Zhouping & Shao, Mingan & Horton, Robert & Lei, Tingwu & Qin, Lin & Ma, Jianqing, 2002. "A model for regional optimal allocation of irrigation water resources under deficit irrigation and its applications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 139-154, January.
    2. Dedi Liu & Xiaohong Chen & Zhanghua Lou, 2010. "A Model for the Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in a Saltwater Intrusion Area: A Case Study in Pearl River Delta in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 63-81, January.
    3. Mansour Talebizadeh & Saeid Morid & Seyyed Ayyoubzadeh & Mehdi Ghasemzadeh, 2010. "Uncertainty Analysis in Sediment Load Modeling Using ANN and SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1747-1761, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. R. Roozbahani & S. Schreider & B. Abbasi, 2013. "Economic Sharing of Basin Water Resources between Competing Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2965-2988, June.
    2. Xiaoling Ding & Xiaocong Mo & Jianzhong Zhou & Sheng Bi & Benjun Jia & Xiang Liao, 2021. "Long-Term Scheduling of Cascade Reservoirs Considering Inflow Forecasting Uncertainty Based on a Disaggregation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 645-660, January.
    3. Bennie Grové, 2019. "Improved Water Allocation under Limited Water Supplies Using Integrated Soil-Moisture Balance Calculations and Nonlinear Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 423-437, January.
    4. Fi-John Chang & Yu-Chung Wang & Wen-Ping Tsai, 2016. "Modelling Intelligent Water Resources Allocation for Multi-users," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1395-1413, March.
    5. Lu, Di & Wang, Bende & Wang, Yaodong & Zhou, Huicheng & Liang, Qiuhua & Peng, Yong & Roskilly, Tony, 2015. "Optimal operation of cascade hydropower stations using hydrogen as storage medium," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 56-63.
    6. Yizhong Chen & Li He & Hongwei Lu & Jing Li & Lixia Ren, 2018. "Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3135-3153, July.
    7. Fi-John Chang & Yu-Chung Wang & Wen-Ping Tsai, 2016. "Modelling Intelligent Water Resources Allocation for Multi-users," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1395-1413, March.
    8. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.
    9. Javier Alarcón & Alberto Garrido & Luis Juana, 2014. "Managing Irrigation Water Shortage: a Comparison Between Five Allocation Rules Based on Crop Benefit Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(8), pages 2315-2329, June.

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